China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications
China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.061
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发表时间：
2014-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Jiahai Yuan;Yan Xu;Xingping Zhang;Zheng Hu;Ming Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jiahai Yuan;Yan Xu;Xingping Zhang;Zheng Hu;Ming Xu
中国提出了到2020年清洁能源目标，同时提出了将经济二氧化碳排放强度比2005年降低40-45%的气候变化目标。本文通过检验这些目标在可能的经济发展情景下的一致性，探讨了这些目标的可行性。我们从两个角度分析这些目标：与总体经济增长的一致性和与国际社会对中国温室气体减排责任的期望的一致性。主要调查结果如下：在最近宣布的2020年国内生产总值（GDP）目标下，即2010年的两倍，采用15%的清洁能源目标可能会导致过度的一次能源需求;然后，随着40-45%的GDP CO2强度降低，2020年的CO2排放量可能会大大超过国际能源署（IEA）对中国的450 ppm情景。因此，我们提出了17%的清洁能源目标，可以使国内计划与国际期望相协调。我们的文章还概述了到2020年实现清洁能源发展的途径，并提出了政策建议。
China has proposed its 2020 clean energy target together with the climate change target of reducing CO2intensity of the economy by 40–45% below the 2005 level. This article investigates the feasibility of these targets by testing their consistency under possible economic development scenarios. We analyse these targets from two perspectives: consistency with the overall economic growth and consistency with the international society's expectation on China's greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement responsibilities. The main findings are: under the recently announced 2020 target of gross domestic product (GDP) that is double the 2010 level, the adoption of a 15% clean energy target could result in excessive primary energy demand; and then with 40–45% GDP CO2intensity reduction, CO2emissions in 2020 could substantially exceed the International Energy Agency (IEA) 450 ppm scenario for China. Thus we propose a 17% clean energy target that can reconcile the domestic plan with international expectation. Our article also outlines the pathways to realise clean energy development into 2020 and proposes policy recommendations.