The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment

The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment
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消费者信贷获取对失业的影响

DOI:
10.1093/restud/rdz006
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发表时间:
2019
期刊:
The Review of Economic Studies
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Herkenhoff, Kyle F
Herkenhoff, Kyle F
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Herkenhoff, Kyle F

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失业家庭获得无担保循环信贷的机会在过去30年中增加了两倍多。本文分析了信贷准入的周期性波动和趋势性增加如何影响商业周期。主要的量化结果是,在过去40年里,信贷扩张和收缩导致了程度较深、时间较长的衰退。1977年至2010年,随着越来越多的人获得信贷,周期性信贷波动影响到更大比例的人口,并成为就业动态的更重要决定因素。尽管商业周期更不稳定,但新生儿严格地说更喜欢生活在信贷市场不断增长但波动的经济中。
Unemployed households’ access to unsecured revolving credit more than tripled over the last three decades. This article analyses how both cyclical fluctuations and trend increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations affected a larger share of the population and became more important determinants of employment dynamics. Even though business cycles are more volatile, newborns strictly prefer to live in the economy with growing, but fluctuating, access to credit markets.
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