Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1212222
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发表时间：
2012-04-27
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Matear, Richard J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Durack, Paul J.;Wijffels, Susan E.;Matear, Richard J.
基本的热力学和气候模型表明，由于气候变暖，干旱地区将变得更加干燥，潮湿地区将变得更加潮湿。在稀疏的地面降雨和蒸发观测中发现这种长期反应的努力仍然含糊不清。我们发现，海洋盐度模式表达了不断加强的水循环的可识别指纹。我们50年来观测到的全球表面盐度变化，结合全球气候模型的变化，提供了强有力的证据，表明全球水循环以每表面变暖8+/-5%的速度加强。这一速度是当前一代气候模型预测的两倍，表明在未来全球变暖2度至3度时，全球水循环将大幅(16%至24%)加剧。
Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 +/- 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2 degrees to 3 degrees warmer world.