Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology
Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology
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DOI：
10.1029/2007gl029245
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发表时间：
2007-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
D. Tartakovsky
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Tartakovsky
我们提出了一个地下污染的概率风险评估（PRA）的一般框架。PRA提供了一个自然的场地，严格量化的结构（模型）和参数的不确定性固有的地下水流和运输的预测。典型的PRA通过识别地下系统的相关组件（例如，一个埋在地下的固体废物罐，一个弱透水层，一个补救措施），并通过使用不确定性量化技术来估计其失败的概率。然后通过故障树分析将这些概率组合起来，以产生系统故障风险的概率估计（例如，含水层污染）。由于PRA依赖于主观概率，它非常适合于专家判断和因果关系的同化。
We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of subsurface contamination. PRA provides a natural venue for the rigorous quantification of structural (model) and parametric uncertainties inherent in predictions of subsurface flow and transport. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a subsurface system (e.g., a buried solid‐waste tank, an aquitard, a remediation effort) and proceeds by using uncertainty quantification techniques to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault‐tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g., aquifer contamination). Since PRA relies on subjective probabilities, it is ideally suited for assimilation of expert judgment and causal relationships.