Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds
Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1920448117
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发表时间：
2020-07-21
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Bairlein, Franz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Haest, Birgen;Hueppop, Ommo;Bairlein, Franz
气候变化导致所有营养组的生命周期事件的时间发生变化。春季物候大多已经发展，但物种之间和物种内部存在着巨大的、无法解释的变化。每年春天，候鸟从越冬地到繁殖地要飞行几十到几万公里。对于大多数种群来说，它们在繁殖区以外的确切位置以及在那里度过的时间或迁移期间仍然存在很大的不确定性。因此，由于天气在空间和时间上的不确定性可能影响迁徙时间，因此很难评估气候（变化）对鸟类迁徙物候的影响。在这里，我们显示了六个跨撒哈拉长途移民，天气在越冬和中途停留的理由几乎完全（类似于80%）解释春季迁徙物候的年际变化。重要的是，我们的时空方法还允许系统地排除其他位置和时间的影响。虽然春季气温的升高确实对55年研究期间观察到的春季迁徙的进展做出了巨大贡献，但风条件的改善，特别是在马格里布和地中海，使其取得了更大的进展。由于空间、规模、时间和天气变量类型的不匹配，长期以来，人们一直低估了长距离移民春季迁徙时间对外源因素的灵活性。
Climate change causes changes in the timing of life cycle events across all trophic groups. Spring phenology has mostly advanced, but large, unexplained, variations are present between and within species. Each spring, migratory birds travel tens to tens of thousands of kilometers from their wintering to their breeding grounds. For most populations, large uncertainties remain on their exact locations outside the breeding area, and the time spent there or during migration. Assessing climate (change) effects on avian migration phenology has consequently been difficult due to spatial and temporal uncertainties in the weather potentially affecting migration timing. Here, we show for six trans-Saharan long-distance migrants that weather at the wintering and stopover grounds almost entirely (similar to 80%) explains interannual variation in spring migration phenology. Importantly, our spatiotemporal ap-proach also allows for the systematic exclusion of influences at other locations and times. While increased spring temperatures did contribute strongly to the observed spring migration advance-ments over the 55-y study period, improvements in wind conditions, especially in the Maghreb and Mediterranean, have allowed even stronger advancements. Flexibility in spring migration timing of long-distance migrants to exogenous factors has been consistently underestimated due to mismatches in space, scale, time, and weather variable type.