Summer temperature variations in southern Kamchatka as reconstructed from a 247-year tree-ring chronology of Betula ermanii
Summer temperature variations in southern Kamchatka as reconstructed from a 247-year tree-ring chronology of Betula ermanii
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DOI：
10.1007/s10310-010-0183-z
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发表时间：
2010-02
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
M. Sano;F. Furuta;T. Sweda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Sano;F. Furuta;T. Sweda
我们建立了厄尔马尼亚桦树247年的环宽年表。生长在堪察加南部沿海地区靠近林线的开阔林冠森林中。气候响应分析表明，年轮宽度主要受7-8月气温控制。我们用于统计重建的回归模型通过了树状气候学中使用的严格的校准-验证测试，导致了堪察加南部第一次有质量控制的树轮重建。重建的气温显示从19世纪30年代到80年代是一个凉爽的时期，然后逐渐变暖，直到1940年左右，然后是一个降温趋势，一直持续到20世纪70年代，最后是一个变暖的趋势，一直持续到现在。与北太平洋海表温度的空间相关分析表明，堪察加半岛周围海域对研究区域的温度变化起到了调制作用，而太平洋年代际涛动的影响相对较弱。
We have developed a 247-year ring-width chronology ofBetura ermaniiCham. growing in an open canopy forest close to the tree line at a coastal site in southern Kamchatka. Climatic response analyses revealed that the ring width was primarily controlled by July–August temperature. The regression models that we used for statistical reconstruction passed the stringent calibration–verification tests used in dendroclimatology, resulting in the first quality-controlled tree-ring reconstruction for southern Kamchatka. The reconstructed temperature shows a cool period from the 1830s to the 1880s, followed by gradual warming until ca. 1940, then a cooling trend extending to the 1970s, and finally a warming trend continuing to the present. Spatial correlation analyses with sea surface temperature in the North Pacific indicated that the seas surrounding the Kamchatka peninsula play a role in modulating temperature variations in the study area whereas the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are relatively weak.