Plan B(ruxellles): Belgian Intelligence and the Terrorist Attacks of 2015-16
Plan B(ruxellles): Belgian Intelligence and the Terrorist Attacks of 2015-16
复制标题
B 计划（ruxellles）：比利时情报机构和 2015-16 年恐怖袭击
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Kenneth L. Lasoen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kenneth L. Lasoen
摘要本文利用官方报告以及情报部门的消息来源，更清楚地了解比利时情报和安全部门的工作环境，以及自外国战斗人员现象出现以来，他们在应对暴力激进化和恐怖主义阴谋所带来的挑战方面所承受的压力。它将显示如何从迅速扩大的威胁越来越大的压力加剧了安全服务的逐渐枯竭的结构性问题，未解决的组织困难，以及预算限制面临着不断增加的工作量。由于外国战斗人员人数众多，信息交流障碍、指导不明确和数据超载阻碍了迟来的评估威胁举措。比利时情报部门未能发现袭击计划，与其说是情报部门表现不佳，不如说是政策失败的表现。最后一节将反思比利时倾向于低估安全而导致的政策反应不足和迟缓。
ABSTRACT This essay uses the official reports as well as sources from the intelligence services to provide a clearer picture of the working circumstances of the Belgian intelligence and security services and the pressure they were under to deal with the challenges posed by violent radicalisation and terrorist plots since the emergence of the foreign fighters phenomenon. It will be shown how mounting pressure from the rapidly expanding threat exacerbated the gradual exhaustion of the security services by structural issues of unaddressed organisational difficulties, and budget restrictions faced with increasing workloads. Due to the high number of foreign fighters, belated initiatives taken to assess the threat were impeded by barriers to information exchange, unclear guidance, and data overload. The failure of Belgian intelligence to detect the attack plans was more a symptom of policy failure than the underachievement of the services. A concluding section will reflect upon the inadequacy and lateness of policy responses because of a Belgian tendency to understate security.