What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?
What would have happened to the ozone layer if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) had not been regulated?
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-9-2113-2009
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Velders, G. J. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Newman, P. A.;Oman, L. D.;Velders, G. J. M.
Molina 和 Rowland 在 1974 年的 Nature 论文中首次提出氯氟烃 (CFC) 消耗臭氧层的概念。从那时起，臭氧损失与氟氯化碳和其他臭氧消耗物质 (ODS) 之间的科学联系已通过实验室测量、大气观测和建模研究牢固地建立起来。这项科学研究促成了国际协议的实施，这些协议基本上停止了消耗臭氧层物质的生产。在这项研究中，我们使用完全耦合的辐射-化学-动力学模型来模拟 ODS 从未受到监管且 ODS 产量以每年 3% 的速度增长的未来世界。在这个“避免世界”的模拟中，到 2020 年，全球平均柱状臭氧的 17% 被破坏，与 1980 年相比，到 2065 年，有 67% 被破坏。极地地区的臭氧大量消耗变成了全年性的，而不是像目前在南极臭氧空洞中观察到的那样，只是季节性的。由于环流变化和臭氧对短波辐射吸收的减少，观察到温度大幅下降。热带低平流层的臭氧水平直到 2053 年左右都保持不变，然后由于非均质化学过程（如目前在南极臭氧空洞中观察到的那样），到 2058 年降至接近于零。引发臭氧崩溃的热带降温是由热带上升流的增加引起的。由于臭氧变化，紫外线辐射增加，到 2060 年，北部夏季中纬度地区的红斑辐射将增加一倍以上。
Ozone depletion by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) was first proposed by Molina and Rowland in their 1974 Nature paper. Since that time, the scientific connection between ozone losses and CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODSs) has been firmly established with laboratory measurements, atmospheric observations, and modeling studies. This science research led to the implementation of international agreements that largely stopped the production of ODSs. In this study we use a fully-coupled radiation-chemical-dynamical model to simulate a future world where ODSs were never regulated and ODS production grew at an annual rate of 3%. In this "world avoided" simulation, 17% of the globally-averaged column ozone is destroyed by 2020, and 67% is destroyed by 2065 in comparison to 1980. Large ozone depletions in the polar region become year-round rather than just seasonal as is currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole. Very large temperature decreases are observed in response to circulation changes and decreased shortwave radiation absorption by ozone. Ozone levels in the tropical lower stratosphere remain constant until about 2053 and then collapse to near zero by 2058 as a result of heterogeneous chemical processes ( as currently observed in the Antarctic ozone hole). The tropical cooling that triggers the ozone collapse is caused by an increase of the tropical upwelling. In response to ozone changes, ultraviolet radiation increases, more than doubling the erythemal radiation in the northern summer midlatitudes by 2060.