The separation of between-person and within-person components of individual change over time: a latent curve model with structured residuals.

The separation of between-person and within-person components of individual change over time: a latent curve model with structured residuals.
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DOI:
10.1037/a0035297
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发表时间:
2014-10
影响因子:
5.9
通讯作者:
McGinley JS
McGinley JS
中科院分区:
心理学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Curran PJ;Howard AL;Bainter SA;Lane ST;McGinley JS

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尽管近期的统计学和计算学发展使得以以往不可能的方式对心理学理论进行实证检验成为可能,但一个特别棘手的挑战仍然存在:如何在两种结构随着时间发展变化时,对它们之间预期的相互关系进行最优建模。目前存在几种分析方法试图对这些类型的关系进行建模,并且每种方法在不同程度上都取得了成功。然而,没有一种方法能够明确区分随着时间推移的稳定性和变化的个体间和个体内成分,而这些成分在心理科学中经常被假设存在。我们这篇论文的目的是提出并展示多变量潜曲线模型的一种新扩展,以便对这些效应进行分解。 我们首先回顾标准的潜曲线模型,并描述这些模型主要是如何捕捉变化中的个体间差异的。然后我们扩展这个模型,允许在特定时间的残差之间建立回归结构,以捕捉变化中的个体内差异。 我们使用一个模拟酒精使用和抑郁症状之间发展关系的人工数据集(包含五次重复测量)来演示这个模型。 我们从所提出的分析策略中获得了其他现有方法无法提供的特定结果。最后我们讨论了我们方法的潜在局限性以及未来研究的方向。
Although recent statistical and computational developments allow for the empirical testing of psychological theories in ways not previously possible, one particularly vexing challenge remains: how to optimally model the prospective, reciprocal relations between two constructs as they developmentally unfold over time. Several analytic methods currently exist that attempt to model these types of relations, and each approach is successful to varying degrees. However, none provide the unambiguous separation of between-person and within-person components of stability and change over time, components that are often hypothesized to exist in the psychological sciences. The goal of our paper is to propose and demonstrate a novel extension of the multivariate latent curve model to allow for the disaggregation of these effects. We begin with a review of the standard latent curve models and describe how these primarily capture between-person differences in change. We then extend this model to allow for regression structures among the time-specific residuals to capture within-person differences in change. We demonstrate this model using an artificial data set generated to mimic the developmental relation between alcohol use and depressive symptomatology spanning five repeated measures. We obtain a specificity of results from the proposed analytic strategy that are not available from other existing methodologies. We conclude with potential limitations of our approach and directions for future research.
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