The driving factors behind coal demand in China from 1997 to 2012: An empirical study of input-output structural decomposition analysis
The driving factors behind coal demand in China from 1997 to 2012: An empirical study of input-output structural decomposition analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2016.05.007
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发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ya Wu;Wanying Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ya Wu;Wanying Zhang
随着经济的快速发展，特别是工业化、城市化进程的不断推进，中国的能源消费量逐年增加。占能源消费总量70%左右的煤炭消费尤其令人关注。因此，研究中国煤炭需求背后的驱动因素至关重要。运用投入产出结构分解分析（I-O SDA）模型，将1997 - 2012年中国煤炭需求增量分解为国内需求、对外贸易和产业升级3个方面8个驱动因素的加权平均值之和。结果表明：研究期内，煤炭需求增长153.3%，其中内需和外贸拉动分别增长185.4%和76.4%;此外，产业升级对煤炭需求增长具有有效抑制作用，贡献率为-108.6%。在此基础上，重点研究了电力、能源加工、金属、采矿、建材和化工等高耗能行业煤炭需求的驱动因素。最后，对我国实现节能减排提出了有针对性的政策建议。
With the rapid development of economy, especially the constant progress in industrialisation and urbanisation, China's energy consumption has increased annually. Coal consumption, which accounts for about 70% of total energy consumption, is of particular concern. Hence, it is crucial to study the driving factors behind coal demand in China. This work uses an input-output structural decomposition analysis (I-O SDA) model to decompose the increments of coal demand in China from 1997 to 2012 into the sum of the weighted average for eight driving factors from three aspects, including: domestic demand, foreign trade and industrial upgrading. Results show that: during the research period, the demand for coal increases by 153.3%, which is increased by 185.4% and 76.4% respectively due to the driving forces of domestic demand and foreign trade; in addition, industrial upgrading can effectively restrain the growth in coal demand with a contribution rate of −108.6%. On this basis, we mainly studied the driving factors of coal demand in six high energy-consuming industries, namely the electrical power, energy processing, metals, mining, building materials and chemical industries. Finally, we proposed targeted policy suggestions for the realisation of energy conservation and emissions reduction in China.