The Long Winter of 1880/81
The Long Winter of 1880/81
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1880/81 漫长的冬天
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Steven D. Hilberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. M. Boustead;M. Shulski;Steven D. Hilberg
1880年至1881年美国中部冬天的故事在历史小说中被重述，包括劳拉·英戈尔斯怀尔德的《漫长的冬天》，以及当地历史和民间传说。气象数据讲述了什么故事，与小说和民间传说相比，它又是如何衡量的？造成长冬严重性的因素是什么？它是否已经或可能重复？研究历史和气象数据，重建和再分析，包括累积冬季严重程度指数，长冬成为自欧洲后裔定居者抵达美国中部并开始记录天气以来最严重的天气之一。造成其严重性的因素包括极端负的北大西洋涛动模式，轻度到中度的厄尔尼诺现象，以及比20世纪平均水平冷得多的背景气候状态。冬季开始得很早，整个冬季都特别寒冷和多雪，春季突然融化，导致随后创纪录的洪水。包括《漫长的冬天》在内的历史记载在描述其严重程度以及对交通、燃料供应、粮食供应以及人类和牲畜健康的影响方面基本准确。作为有记录以来最严酷的冬天之一，现代历史记录中还有其他冬天的严酷程度，为比较和对比类似严冬的影响提供了机会。
The story of the winter of 1880/81 in the central United States has been retold in historical fiction, including Laura Ingalls Wilder’s The Long Winter, as well as in local histories and folklore. What story does the meteorological data tell, and how does it measure up when compared to the fiction and folklore? What were the contributing factors to the severity of the Long Winter, and has it been or could it be repeated? Examining historical and meteorological data, reconstructions, and reanalysis, including the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, the Long Winter emerges as one of the most severe since European-descended settlers arrived to the central United States and began documenting weather. Contributing factors to its severity include an extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, a mild to moderate El Niño, and a background climate state that was much colder than the twentieth-century average. The winter began early and was particularly cold and snowy throughout its duration, with a sudden spring melt that caused subsequent record-setting flooding. Historical accounts of the winter, including The Long Winter, prove to be largely accurate in describing its severity, as well as its impacts on transportation, fuel availability, food supplies, and human and livestock health. Being just one of the most severe winters on record, there are others in the modern historical record that do compare in severity, providing opportunity for comparing and contrasting the impacts of similarly severe winters.