Systemic lupus Erythematosus and geomagnetic disturbances: a time series analysis.
Systemic lupus Erythematosus and geomagnetic disturbances: a time series analysis.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12940-021-00692-4
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发表时间：
2021-03-16
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Petri M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stojan G;Giammarino F;Petri M
研究太阳活动周期和地磁效应对SLE疾病活动的影响。用于分析的数据包括1996年1月至2020年2月的27天医生全球评估（PGA）平均值的327个观察结果。所考虑的地磁指标是AP指标（地磁活动的日平均水平）、太阳黑子数指数R（测量太阳表面被斑点覆盖的面积），F10.7指数（测量太阳在地球轨道上10.7厘米波长处产生的噪音水平），Au指数（上极光电喷流指数）和高能（> 60 Mev）质子通量事件。地磁数据是从戈达德航天飞行中心空间物理数据设施获得的。PGA平均值的时间序列分解作为第一步进行。PGA和地磁指数之间的线性关系进行了检查，使用参数统计方法，如皮尔逊相关和线性回归，而非线性关系进行了检查，使用非参数统计方法，如斯皮尔曼的rho和核回归。PGA平均值的时间序列解构后，季节性解释了一个显着的时间序列的方差（R2 = 38.7%），每16年完成一个周期。短期（27天）关系的分析表明，地磁活动Ap指数（p < 0.1）和高能质子通量（> 60 Mev）（p < 0.05）的增加与SLE疾病活动性的降低有关，而太阳黑子数指数R的增加则预示着SLE疾病活动性的降低（以PGA表示）（p < 0.05）。使用Bonferroni校正进行多重比较调整后，短期相关性在统计学上变得不显著。对长期（297天）关系的分析表明，PGA的变化与太阳黑子数指数R（p < 0.01）、AP指数（p <0.01）和F10.7指数（p < 0.01）的变化之间存在较强的负相关。在使用Bonferroni校正进行多重比较调整后，长期相关性仍具有统计学显著性。PGA平均值的季节性（每16年一个周期）解释了时间序列方差的一个重要部分。地磁扰动，包括地磁活动水平、太阳黑子数量和高质子通量事件可能影响SLE疾病活动。需要对其他地理区域进行研究，以验证这些发现。在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12940-021-00692-4获得。
To examine the influence of solar cycle and geomagnetic effects on SLE disease activity. The data used for the analysis consisted of 327 observations of 27-day Physician Global Assessment (PGA) averages from January 1996 to February 2020. The considered geomagnetic indices were the AP index (a daily average level for geomagnetic activity), sunspot number index R (measure of the area of solar surface covered by spots), the F10.7 index (measure of the noise level generated by the sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm at the earth’s orbit), the AU index (upper auroral electrojet index), and high energy (> 60 Mev) proton flux events. Geomagnetic data were obtained from the Goddard Space Flight Center Space Physics Data Facility. A time series decomposition of the PGA averages was performed as the first step. The linear relationships between the PGA and the geomagnetic indices were examined using parametric statistical methods such as Pearson correlation and linear regression, while the nonlinear relationships were examined using nonparametric statistical methods such as Spearman’s rho and Kernel regression. After time series deconstruction of PGA averages, the seasonality explained a significant fraction of the variance of the time series (R2 = 38.7%) with one cycle completed every 16 years. The analysis of the short-term (27-day) relationships indicated that increases in geomagnetic activity Ap index (p < 0.1) and high energy proton fluxes (> 60 Mev) (p < 0.05) were associated with decreases in SLE disease activity, while increases in the sunspot number index R anticipated decreases in the SLE disease activity expressed as PGA (p < 0.05). The short-term correlations became statistically insignificant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction. The analysis of the long-term (297 day) relationships indicated stronger negative association between changes in the PGA and changes in the sunspot number index R (p < 0.01), AP index (p < 0.01), and the F10.7 index (p < 0.01). The long-term correlations remained statistically significant after adjusting for multiple comparisons using Bonferroni correction. The seasonality of the PGA averages (one cycle every 16 years) explains a significant fraction of the variance of the time series. Geomagnetic disturbances, including the level of geomagnetic activity, sunspot numbers, and high proton flux events may influence SLE disease activity. Studies of other geographic locales are needed to validate these findings. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12940-021-00692-4.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Petri, Michelle;Orbai, Ana-Maria;Alarcon, Graciela S.;Gordon, Caroline;Merrill, Joan T.;Fortin, Paul R.;Bruce, Ian N.;Isenberg, David;Wallace, Daniel J.;Nived, Ola;Sturfelt, Gunnar;Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind;Bae, Sang-Cheol;Hanly, John G.;Sanchez-Guerrero, Jorge;Clarke, Ann;Aranow, Cynthia;Manzi, Susan;Urowitz, Murray;Gladman, Dafna;Kalunian, Kenneth;Costner, Melissa;Werth, Victoria P.;Zoma, Asad;Bernatsky, Sasha;Ruiz-Irastorza, Guillermo;Khamashta, Munther A.;Jacobsen, Soren;Buyon, Jill P.;Maddison, Peter;Dooley, Mary Anne;van vollenhoven, Ronald F.;Ginzler, Ellen;Stoll, Thomas;Peschken, Christine;Jorizzo, Joseph L.;Callen, Jeffrey P.;Lim, S. Sam;Fessler, Barri J.;Inanc, Murat;Kamen, Diane L.;Rahman, Anisur;Steinsson, Kristjan;Franks, Andrew G., Jr.;Sigler, Lisa;Hameed, Suhail;Fang, Hong;Ngoc Pham;Brey, Robin;Weisman, Michael H.;McGwin, Gerald, Jr.;Magder, Laurence S.
通讯作者：
Magder, Laurence S.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
KNOX, EG;ARMSTRONG, E;HAYNES, R
通讯作者：
HAYNES, R
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Sajedi, Seyed Aidin;Abdollahi, Fahimeh
通讯作者：
Abdollahi, Fahimeh
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Burch, JB;Reif, JS;Yost, MG
通讯作者：
Yost, MG
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
King, JH;Papitashvili, NE
通讯作者：
Papitashvili, NE