Quantifying the human impact of Melbourne's 111-day hard lockdown experiment on the adult population.
Quantifying the human impact of Melbourne's 111-day hard lockdown experiment on the adult population.
复制标题
量化墨尔本 111 天的严格封锁实验对成年人口的影响。
DOI：
10.1038/s41562-023-01638-1
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Wooden,Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schurer,Stefanie;Atalay,Kadir;Glozier,Nick;Vera-Toscano,Esperanza;Wooden,Mark
封锁在全球范围内被用于减缓严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2的传播，是零COVID战略的基石非药物干预措施。许多先前对封锁的影响评估是不可靠的，因为封锁与严重的冠状病毒疾病相关的健康和财务不安全感同时发生。在墨尔本为期111天的封锁中，情况并非如此，澳大利亚其他司法管辖区未受影响。通过询问全国代表性的纵向调查数据和准实验变异，并控制多个假设检验，我们发现，封锁对人类生活的几个领域产生了一些统计上显著的影响，尽管影响很小。女性的心理健康水平较低（-0.10标准差，P= 0.043，95%置信区间（CI）= −0.21至−0）和工作时间（−0.13标准差，P= 0.006，95% CI =-0.22至0.04），但锻炼频率更高（0.28 s.d.，P< 0.001，95%CI = 0.18至0.39），接受更多的政府转移支付（0.12标准差，P= 0.048，95% CI = 0.001至0.24）。男性感觉自己不是社区的一部分（-0.20标准差，P< 0.001，95%CI =-0.30至-0.10）和减少工作时间（-0.12 s.d.，P= 0.004，95%CI =-0.20至0.04）。异质性分析表明，有孩子的家庭导致了负面结果。母亲的心理健康水平较低（-0.27标准差，P= 0.014，95% CI =-0.48至0.06），尽管感觉更安全（0.26 s.d.，P= 0.008，95% CI = 0.07至0.46）。父亲增加了他们的酒精消费量（0.35标准差，P= 0.002，95% CI = 0.13至0.57）。一些结果随着母亲的封锁时间的延长而恶化。我们讨论了为什么家长受到封锁的不利影响的潜在解释。
Lockdown was used worldwide to mitigate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and was the cornerstone non-pharmaceutical intervention of zero-COVID strategies. Many previous impact evaluations of lockdowns are unreliable because lockdowns co-occurred with severe coronavirus disease related health and financial insecurities. This was not the case in Melbourne’s 111-day lockdown, which left other Australian jurisdictions unaffected. Interrogating nationally representative longitudinal survey data and quasi-experimental variation, and controlling for multiple hypothesis testing, we found that lockdown had some statistically significant, albeit small, impacts on several domains of human life. Women had lower mental health (−0.10 s.d.,P= 0.043, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.21 to −0) and working hours (−0.13 s.d.,P= 0.006, 95% CI = −0.22 to −0.04) but exercised more often (0.28 s.d.,P< 0.001, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.39) and received more government transfers (0.12 s.d.,P= 0.048, 95% CI = 0.001 to 0.24). Men felt less part of their community (−0.20 s.d.,P< 0.001, 95% CI = −0.30 to −0.10) and reduced working hours (−0.12 s.d.,P= 0.004, 95% CI = −0.20 to −0.04). Heterogeneity analyses demonstrated that families with children were driving the negative results. Mothers had lower mental health (−0.27 s.d.,P= 0.014, 95% CI = −0.48 to −0.06), despite feeling safer (0.26 s.d.,P= 0.008, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.46). Fathers increased their alcohol consumption (0.35 s.d.,P= 0.002, 95% CI = 0.13 to 0.57). Some outcomes worsened with lockdown length for mothers. We discuss potential explanations for why parents were adversely affected by lockdown.