Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden‐Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales
Prediction of the Midlatitude Response to Strong Madden‐Julian Oscillation Events on S2S Time Scales
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl075734
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Kai‐Chih Tseng;Elizabeth A. Barnes;E. Maloney
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kai‐Chih Tseng;Elizabeth A. Barnes;E. Maloney
马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）迫使热带外大气环流发生强烈变化，这对亚季节到季节（S2 S）预测具有重要意义。特别是，某些MJO阶段的特点是在北太平洋和邻近地区的位势高度在不同的MJO事件的一致调制。直到最近，只有有限的研究已经研究了这些强大的MJO热带-外热带遥相关和模式预测技能之间的关系。在这项研究中，再分析数据和数值预报模式集合后报被用来证明，强大的遥相关在特定的MJO阶段和时间滞后的特点也是出色的协议在预测的位势高度异常的预测模型集合成员在长达3周的预测线索。这些增强的预测能力的时期扩展了熟练的热带外天气预测的可能性，超出了传统的10-13天的限制。
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) forces strong variations in extratropical atmospheric circulations that have important implications for subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (S2S) prediction. In particular, certain MJO phases are characterized by a consistent modulation of geopotential height in the North Pacific and adjacent regions across different MJO events. Until recently, only limited research has examined the relationship between these robust MJO tropical‐extratropical teleconnections and model prediction skill. In this study, reanalysis data and numerical forecast model ensemble hindcasts are used to demonstrate that robust teleconnections in specific MJO phases and time lags are also characterized by excellent agreement in the prediction of geopotential height anomalies across model ensemble members at forecast leads of up to 3 weeks. These periods of enhanced prediction capabilities extend the possibility for skillful extratropical weather prediction beyond traditional 10–13 day limits.