AIRS impact on the analysis and forecast track of tropical cyclone Nargis in a global data assimilation and forecasting system
AIRS impact on the analysis and forecast track of tropical cyclone Nargis in a global data assimilation and forecasting system
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DOI：
10.1029/2008gl037122
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发表时间：
2009-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
O. Reale;W. Lau;J. Susskind;E. Brin;E. Liu;L. Riishojgaard;M. Fuentes;R. Rosenberg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. Reale;W. Lau;J. Susskind;E. Brin;E. Liu;L. Riishojgaard;M. Fuentes;R. Rosenberg
北方印度洋的热带气旋对业务天气预报系统构成严重挑战，部分原因是与大西洋和太平洋的热带气旋相比，热带气旋的寿命较短，路径更不稳定。此外，业务全球数据同化系统对北方印度洋上空的气旋进行的自动分析的质量一般低于其他流域，部分原因是数据分布不对称，以及缺乏对气旋内部的有针对性的观测。在这项工作中，它表明，同化大气红外探测器（AIRS）温度反演部分多云条件下，可以显着影响的代表性的气旋纳尔吉斯（造成毁灭性的生命损失在缅甸2008年5月）在全球DAS。通过全球模型从这些改进的分析中产生的预测产生的跟踪误差要小得多。同化晴空辐射对同一DAS和预报系统的影响是积极的，但小于通过摄取AIRS检索获得的影响，可能是由于覆盖范围较差。
Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins, partly because of asymmetric data distribution and the absence of targeted observations inside cyclones. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear‐sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, probably due to poorer coverage.