Assessment of the vulnerability of coastal mangrove ecosystems in Mozambique
Assessment of the vulnerability of coastal mangrove ecosystems in Mozambique
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105145
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Romeiras, Maria M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Charrua, Alberto B.;Bandeira, Salomao O.;Romeiras, Maria M.
红树林是地球上生产力最高的生态系统之一。然而，仍然没有足够的信息用于养护和管理干预的战略预测，特别是在莫桑比克。这个国家拥有东非最长的海岸线和红树林，但容易受到全球气候灾害的影响。利用最新的野外数据和经过方差膨胀因子(VIF)共线性检验的环境参数(生物气候变量、坡度、盐度、土地覆盖和海拔)，我们运行MaxEnt程序，基于莫桑比克最具代表性和代表性的红树林物种(Avicennia marina和Rhizophora macronata)的出现数据，对红树林的分布进行建模。此外，为了了解哪些地区应该优先进行红树林和海岸沙丘的管理干预，对气候危害和侵蚀的暴露指数(EI)与这些物种的潜在分布进行了比较。结果表明，夏季平均风速、地表高度、平均日较差和咸水暴露(盐度)是决定这两个物种分布模型的主要因素。莫桑比克中部沿海地区(所谓的沼泽海岸)是红树林物种出现的最大潜在适宜区，具有最高的暴露水平。我们还发现，滨海海棠的EI高于粘毛藻。缺少关于莫桑比克中部地区的研究，该地区最近受到袭击莫桑比克和邻国的飓风艾达(四级，2019年)的破坏，这加强了管理干预的紧迫性。管理人员和决策者应利用这项研究的结果来推广最佳做法，以保护受到沿海气候灾害和人为影响威胁的生命和人民的生计和资产。
Mangrove forests are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. However, there is still insufficient information available for strategic prediction of conservation and management intervention, particularly in the case of Mozambique. This country has the longest coastline and mangrove forests of Eastern Africa, but is prone to global climate hazards. Using recent field data and environmental parameters subjected to the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) collinearity test (bioclimatic variables, slop, salinity, land cover, and elevation), we ran MaxEnt to model the distribution of mangrove forests based on occurrence data of the most emblematic and representative mangrove species in Mozambique (Avicennia marina and Rhizophora mucronata). Moreover, in order to understand which areas should be prioritized for management interventions on mangroves and costal dunes, an Exposure Index (EI) to climate hazards and erosion was compared with the potential distribution of these species. Our results showed that average wind speed of summer season, land surface elevation, Mean Diurnal Range, and saltwater exposure (salinity) were determinant on the distribution models of both species. The central coastal region of Mozambique (so-called swamp coast) presents the largest potentially suitable areas for mangroves species occurrence, having the highest levels of exposure. We also found that A. marina presents a higher EI than R. mucronata. The scarcity of studies concerning the central region of Mozambique; which was recently devastated by cyclone Idai (category four, 2019), which hit Mozambique and the neighbouring countries, reinforce the urgency for management intervention. The findings of this study should be used by managers and decision makers to promote best practices to safeguard lives and people's livelihoods and assets threatened by coastal climate hazards and anthropogenic impacts.