The Macro Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions: a Measurement Error Approach*
The Macro Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions: a Measurement Error Approach*
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjy018
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发表时间：
2018-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Gabriel Chodorow-reich;J. Coglianese;Loukas Karabarbounis
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gabriel Chodorow-reich;J. Coglianese;Loukas Karabarbounis
失业救济金的延长对失业等宏观经济结果的影响有多大？回答这个问题是具有挑战性的，因为美国法律为失业率高的州提供了福利。我们使用数据修订，以分解的变化，在持续时间的好处，部分来自实际的差异，在经济条件和部分来自测量误差的实时数据，用于确定福利扩展。仅使用测量误差产生的变化，我们发现福利扩展对国家层面宏观经济结果的影响有限。我们将我们的估计应用于大衰退期间福利持续时间的增加，发现它们使失业率最多增加了0.3个百分点。
By how much does an extension of unemployment benefits affect macroeconomic outcomes such as unemployment? Answering this question is challenging because U.S. law extends benefits for states experiencing high unemployment. We use data revisions to decompose the variation in the duration of benefits into the part coming from actual differences in economic conditions and the part coming from measurement error in the real-time data used to determine benefit extensions. Using only the variation coming from measurement error, we find that benefit extensions have a limited influence on state-level macroeconomic outcomes. We apply our estimates to the increase in the duration of benefits during the Great Recession and find that they increased the unemployment rate by at most 0.3 percentage point.