Heterogeneous Income Profiles and Lifecycle Bias in Intergenerational Mobility Estimation
Heterogeneous Income Profiles and Lifecycle Bias in Intergenerational Mobility Estimation
复制标题
代际流动性估计中的异质收入状况和生命周期偏差
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Jan Stuhler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Martin Nybom;Jan Stuhler
在代际流动性估计中使用收入的短快照会导致“生命周期偏差”，如果快照不能模仿一生的结果。我们使用独特的长系列瑞典的收入数据表明，这种偏见是大的，并检查目前的战略，以减少it.We确认，生命周期的偏见是最小的收入时，测量中年左右，从一个广泛采用的经典误差变量模型的推广的核心含义。然而，该模型不能预测理想的测量年龄或消除其他年龄的生命周期偏差。我们说明了如何扩展该模型可以进一步减少偏见。
Using short snapshots of income in intergenerational mobility estimation causes “lifecycle bias” if the snapshots cannot mimic lifetime outcomes. We use uniquely long series of Swedish income data to show that this bias is large and to examine current strategies to reduce it. We confirm that lifecycle bias is smallest when incomes are measured around midlife, a central implication from a widely adopted generalization of the classical errors-in-variables model. However, the model cannot predict the ideal age of measurement or eliminate lifecycle bias at other ages. We illustrate how extensions of this model can reduce the bias further.