Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement
Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj.g7594
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发表时间：
2015-01-07
影响因子：
105.7
通讯作者：
Moons, Karel G. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Collins, Gary S.;Reitsma, Johannes B.;Moons, Karel G. M.
开发预测模型是为了帮助医疗保健提供者估计特定疾病或病症存在的概率或风险（诊断模型）或未来将发生的特定事件（预后模型），以告知他们的决策。然而，大量证据表明，预测模型研究报告的质量很差。只有充分和明确地报告预测模型所有方面的信息，才能充分评估预测模型的偏倚风险和潜在有用性。个体预后或诊断多变量预测模型的透明报告（TRIPOD）倡议制定了一系列建议，用于报告开发，验证或更新预测模型的研究，无论是用于诊断还是预后目的。本文介绍了TRIPOD声明是如何制定的。基于文献综述创建了一个广泛的项目列表，在基于网络的调查后进行了缩减，并在2011年6月与方法学家、医疗保健专业人员和期刊编辑举行的为期三天的会议期间进行了修订。在指导小组的几次会议上以及在与《知识产权协定》更广泛的参与者进行的电子邮件讨论中，对该清单进行了修订。由此产生的TRIPOD声明是一个22项的清单，被认为是透明报告预测模型研究的必要条件。TRIPOD声明旨在提高预测模型研究报告的透明度，无论使用何种研究方法。TRIPOD声明最好与TRIPOD解释和阐述文件一起使用。为了帮助预测模型研究的编辑过程和读者，建议作者在提交的材料中包括一个完整的检查表（也可在www.tripod-statement.org上获得）。为了鼓励TRIPOD声明的传播，这篇文章可以在内科医学年鉴网站（www.annals.org）上免费获得，也将发表在BJOG，英国癌症杂志，英国外科杂志，BMC医学，BMJ，循环，糖尿病医学，欧洲临床调查杂志，欧洲泌尿学和临床流行病学杂志上。作者共同拥有本文的版权。附带的解释和阐述文章只能在www.annals.org上免费获得;《内科医学年鉴》拥有该文章的版权。
Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web based survey and revised during a three day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org). To encourage dissemination of the TRIPOD Statement, this article is freely accessible on the Annals of Internal Medicine Web site (www.annals.org) and will be also published in BJOG, British Journal of Cancer, British Journal of Surgery, BMC Medicine, The BMJ, Circulation, Diabetic Medicine, European Journal of Clinical Investigation, European Urology, and Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. The authors jointly hold the copyright of this article. An accompanying explanation and elaboration article is freely available only on www.annals.org; Annals of Internal Medicine holds copyright for that article.