The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach
The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101823
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Siu, Henry E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cortes, Guido Matias;Jaimovich, Nir;Siu, Henry E.
我们使用匹配的个人层面的CPS数据来研究过去40年中中等工资常规职业的下降，并确定相关的劳动力市场流动是如何演变的。这些职业的就业率下降的主要原因是从不参与和失业到常规就业的转换率的变化。我们研究了自20世纪70年代中期以来这些转变率是如何变化的，并发现变化主要是由于个人倾向于进行这种转变，而相对较少是由于人口变化。我们还发现，向常规职业过渡的倾向的变化是近几十年来美国观察到的不参与上升的很大一部分原因。
We use matched individual-level CPS data to study the decline in middle-wage routine occupations during the last 40 years, and determine how the associated labor market flows have evolved. The decline in employment in these occupations can be primarily accounted for by changes in transition rates from non-participation and unemployment to routine employment. We study how these transition rates have changed since the mid-1970s, and find that changes are primarily due to the propensity of individuals to make such transitions, whereas relatively little is due to demographic changes. We also find that changes in the propensity to transition into routine occupations account for a substantial proportion of the rise in non-participation observed in the U.S. in recent decades.