Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions.
Climate Precursors of Satellite Water Marker Index for Spring Cholera Outbreak in Northern Bay of Bengal Coastal Regions.
复制标题
孟加拉沿海地区北部湾区春季霍乱爆发的卫星水标记指数的气候前体。
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph181910201
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发表时间：
2021-09-28
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Behera S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ogata T;Racault MF;Nonaka M;Behera S
霍乱是一种水传播的传染病，影响130万至400万人，全世界每年有21 000至143 000人死亡。疫情对受影响社区及其发展前景具有毁灭性影响。支持备灾和公共卫生反应的关键是有足够的提前时间预测霍乱爆发的能力。霍乱弧菌如何在人类宿主外的环境中生存是疾病传播的重要途径。因此，确定这些病原体的环境和气候驱动因素是非常可取的。在这里，我们阐明了第一次在孟加拉三角洲，这使我们能够预测霍乱爆发到两个赛季前的气候变化和霍乱（卫星水标; SWM）指数之间的机械联系。在秋季的SWM指数的高值与高于正常的夏季季风在北方印度的热带气旋。反过来，这些与追溯到夏季季风和以前春季的拉尼娜气候模式有关。我们提出了一个新的多元线性回归模型，可以解释50%的SWM变化在孟加拉三角洲的基础上与厄尔尼诺南方涛动，印度洋偶极子，夏季季风降雨的气候指数在1997年至2016年的几十年的关系。有趣的是，我们进一步发现，这些关系在1948-2018年的几十年期内是非平稳的。这些结果对发展爆发风险预测具有新的意义，表明迫切需要考虑气候相互作用的数十年变化，并强调更好地了解南亚夏季风如何对气候变率作出反应。
Cholera is a water-borne infectious disease that affects 1.3 to 4 million people, with 21,000 to 143,000 reported fatalities each year worldwide. Outbreaks are devastating to affected communities and their prospects for development. The key to support preparedness and public health response is the ability to forecast cholera outbreaks with sufficient lead time. How Vibrio cholerae survives in the environment outside a human host is an important route of disease transmission. Thus, identifying the environmental and climate drivers of these pathogens is highly desirable. Here, we elucidate for the first time a mechanistic link between climate variability and cholera (Satellite Water Marker; SWM) index in the Bengal Delta, which allows us to predict cholera outbreaks up to two seasons earlier. High values of the SWM index in fall were associated with above-normal summer monsoon rainfalls over northern India. In turn, these correlated with the La Niña climate pattern that was traced back to the summer monsoon and previous spring seasons. We present a new multi-linear regression model that can explain 50% of the SWM variability over the Bengal Delta based on the relationship with climatic indices of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, and summer monsoon rainfall during the decades 1997–2016. Interestingly, we further found that these relationships were non-stationary over the multi-decadal period 1948–2018. These results bear novel implications for developing outbreak-risk forecasts, demonstrating a crucial need to account for multi-decadal variations in climate interactions and underscoring to better understand how the south Asian summer monsoon responds to climate variability.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17249378
发表时间：
2020-12-15
影响因子：
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作者：
Campbell AM;Racault MF;Goult S;Laurenson A
通讯作者：
Laurenson A
影响因子：
13.5
作者：
Jutla, Antarpreet S.;Akanda, Ali S.;Islam, Shafiqul
通讯作者：
Islam, Shafiqul
DOI：
10.1080/2150704x.2013.802097
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Remote sensing letters (Print)
影响因子：
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作者：
Jutla A;Akanda AS;Huq A;Faruque AS;Colwell R;Islam S
通讯作者：
Islam S
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ashok, K;Guan, ZY;Yamagata, T
通讯作者：
Yamagata, T
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Kunii, O;Nakamura, S;Wakai, S
通讯作者：
Wakai, S