Assessing the contribution of harvested wood products under greenhouse gas estimation: accounting under the Paris Agreement and the potential for double-counting among the choice of approaches
Assessing the contribution of harvested wood products under greenhouse gas estimation: accounting under the Paris Agreement and the potential for double-counting among the choice of approaches
复制标题
评估采伐木材产品在温室气体估算下的贡献：《巴黎协定》下的核算以及方法选择中重复计算的可能性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Y. Nojiri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Sato;Y. Nojiri
背景有多种方法可以根据计算给定碳库变化的时间和地点之间的差异来估算采伐木材产品 (HWP) 产生的排放和清除。目前，各国可以自由使用任何 HWP 方法来准备其年度温室气体 (GHG) 清单并确定其国家自主贡献 (NDC) 的减排目标，尽管根据《巴黎协定》(PA)，生产方法用于温室气体清单中的标准报告。全球重复计算和不计算 HWP 的情况可能会发生，具体取决于每个国家使用的 HWP 方法；然而，这种重复计算和不计算的影响尚未得到彻底评估。 结果我们针对六种 HWP 方法的组合确定了全球重复计算和不计算 HWP 的所有案例：“瞬时氧化”、“库存变化”、“生产”、“国内来源 HWP 的库存变化方法 (SCAD)”、“简单衰变”和“常压流动”方法。在国家自主贡献预期（INDC）中，林地往往被部分或完全排除在外，特别是发展中国家。在这种情况下，需要有关木材采伐和贸易的全面国家数据的 HWP 方法不适合估算 HWP 贡献。此外，大多数发展中国家在收获时采用“瞬时氧化”。附件一国家最近的温室气体清单显示，年度 HWP 排放量或清除量对国家总排放量的平均贡献接近 1%；因此，HWP 对核算的减排量的潜在贡献被假定为较小的值。结论对于木材生产不是经济的主要部分的国家来说，瞬时氧化仍然是一种实用的方法。 “瞬时氧化”与“生产”、“SCAD”或“简单衰减”方法的结合可能是实现全球 HWP 核算方法并消除重复计算的实用解决方案。无论全球如何出现重复计算和不计算的情况，金额都不大。为了提高全球评估的准确性，重要的是减少国家层面上与 HWP 相关的排放发生时间和数量的估计不确定性。
BackgroundThere are multiple approaches for estimating emissions and removals arising from harvested wood products (HWP) based on differences between when and where a given carbon stock change is calculated. At this moment, countries are free to use any HWP approach to prepare their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and determine emission reduction targets for their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), although under the Paris Agreement (PA), the production approach is used for standard reporting in GHG inventories. Global double-counting and non-counting of HWP might occur depending on the HWP approach each country uses; however, the impact of such double-counting and non-counting has not been thoroughly evaluated.ResultsWe identified all cases of global double-counting and non-counting of HWP for combinations of the six HWP approaches: ‘instantaneous oxidation’, ‘stock-change’, ‘production’, ‘stock-changes approach for HWP of domestic origin (SCAD)’, ‘simple-decay’ and ‘atmospheric-flow’ approaches. In Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), forest land is often partly or completely excluded, especially by developing countries. In such cases, HWP approaches that require comprehensive national data on wood harvesting and trade are not suitable for estimating HWP contributions. In addition, most developing countries apply the ‘instantaneous oxidation’ at the time of harvesting. Recent GHG inventories from Annex I countries show the averaged contribution of annual HWP emissions or removals to national total emissions is nearly 1%; therefore, the potential contribution of HWP to the accounted emission reduction volume is assumed to be a smaller value.ConclusionsInstantaneous oxidation remains a pragmatic approach for countries in which wood production is not a dominant part of the economy. The combination of ‘instantaneous oxidation’ with the ‘production’, ‘SCAD’ or ‘simple-decay’ approaches could be a practical solution to realize a global HWP accounting approach the eliminates double-counting. Regardless of how global double-counting and non-counting occur, the amount is not large. To improve the accuracy of the global assessment, it is important to reduce the uncertainty of estimation regarding when and how much HWP-related emissions occur at national level.