Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas
Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/045602
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发表时间：
2012-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Pistolesi, Linda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
de Sherbinin, Alex;Levy, Marc;Pistolesi, Linda
在气候变化的背景下，生态系统改变和极端天气事件的可能性引发了关于移民在增加或减少社会风险方面所起作用的问题。利用1970年至2000年30年间净移民的建模数据，我们确定了气候灾害高风险的敏感生态系统和地区，这些地区在这段时间内出现了高水平的净迁入和迁出。本文综述了与生态系统相关的迁移，简要描述了用于估算净迁移的方法，然后使用这些数据描述了各种生态系统和高风险地区的净迁移模式。研究发现，负净迁移通常发生在大片地区，反映出其主要是农村特征，而正净迁移的地区通常较小，反映出其主要是城市特征。中国和印度等人口最多的国家倾向于推动这些国家所有生态系统的全球结果。结果表明，从1970年到2000年，发展中国家的移民倾向于离开边缘旱地和山地生态系统以及干旱易发地区，而转向沿海生态系统以及容易发生洪水和旋风的地区。在北美，旱地和山地生态系统的结果正好相反，在有记录的时期，这些地区出现了大量的人口净流入。讨论了这些估计中的不确定性和潜在的误差来源。
The potential for altered ecosystems and extreme weather events in the context of climate change has raised questions concerning the role that migration plays in either increasing or reducing risks to society. Using modeled data on net migration over three decades from 1970 to 2000, we identify sensitive ecosystems and regions at high risk of climate hazards that have seen high levels of net in-migration and out-migration over the time period. This paper provides a literature review on migration related to ecosystems, briefly describes the methodology used to develop the estimates of net migration, then uses those data to describe the patterns of net migration for various ecosystems and high risk regions. The study finds that negative net migration generally occurs over large areas, reflecting its largely rural character, whereas areas of positive net migration are typically smaller, reflecting its largely urban character. The countries with largest population such as China and India tend to drive global results for all the ecosystems found in those countries. Results suggest that from 1970 to 2000, migrants in developing countries have tended to move out of marginal dryland and mountain ecosystems and out of drought-prone areas, and have moved towards coastal ecosystems and areas that are prone to floods and cyclones. For North America results are reversed for dryland and mountain ecosystems, which saw large net influxes of population in the period of record. Uncertainties and potential sources of error in these estimates are addressed.