Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China
Estimation of the time-varying reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijheh.2020.113555
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
You, Chong;Deng, Yuhao;Zhou, Xiao-Hua
背景：2019年中国武汉爆发的新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）疫情引起了全世界的关注。截至2020年3月31日，中国国家卫生健康委员会（NHC）共确诊82，631例COVID-19病例。方法：三种方法，即基于泊松似然的方法（ML）、基于指数增长率的方法（EGR）和基于随机易感-感染-去除动态模型的方法（SIR），结果：在14个国家中，共确定了198条传播链以及症状出现日期和139个感染日期，截至2020年3月31日，湖北省以外报告确诊病例829例。根据这些信息，我们发现，序列间隔的平均值为4.60天，标准差为5.55天，潜伏期的平均值为8.00天，标准差为4.75天，感染期的平均值为13.96天，标准差为5.20天。3种方法估算的中国各地区控制再生产数R-c均显著小于基本再生产数R-0。结论：中国目前控制再生产数远低于全国各地区控制再生产数。在实施前所未有的遏制措施后的30天内，它下降到1以下，这表明中国政府采取的强有力措施对遏制疫情是有效的。尽管如此，仍需做出努力，以结束目前的疫情，因为从海外输入的病例构成了第二次疫情爆发的高风险。
Background: The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has attracted world-wide attention. As of March 31, 2020, a total of 82,631 cases of COVID-19 in China were confirmed by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China.Methods: Three approaches, namely Poisson likelihood-based method (ML), exponential growth rate-based method (EGR) and stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed dynamic model-based method (SIR), were implemented to estimate the basic and controlled reproduction numbers.Results: A total of 198 chains of transmission together with dates of symptoms onset and 139 dates of infections were identified among 14,829 confirmed cases outside Hubei Province as reported as of March 31, 2020. Based on this information, we found that the serial interval had an average of 4.60 days with a standard deviation of 5.55 days, the incubation period had an average of 8.00 days with a standard deviation of 4.75 days and the infectious period had an average of 13.96 days with a standard deviation of 5.20 days. The estimated controlled reproduction numbers, R-c, produced by all three methods in all analyzed regions of China are significantly smaller compared with the basic reproduction numbers R-0.Conclusions: The controlled reproduction number in China is much lower than one in all regions of China by now. It fell below one within 30 days from the implementations of unprecedent containment measures, which indicates that the strong measures taken by China government was effective to contain the epidemic. Nonetheless, efforts are still needed in order to end the current epidemic as imported cases from overseas pose a high risk of a second outbreak.