Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes
Estimating and managing blowout risk during access to subglacial Antarctic lakes
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评估和管理进入南极冰下湖泊期间的井喷风险
DOI：
10.1017/s0954102012000442
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Keith Makinson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Brito;G. Griffiths;M. Mowlem;Keith Makinson
摘要随着南极冰下湖研究向原位勘探发展，冰下湖的气体浓度问题成为研究的重要课题。根据水文环境的不同，冰下湖泊可能含有大量溶解气体或笼形物中的气体。因此，由于井喷的风险，减压可能导致水和气体从井眼高速喷出，因此进入可能存在潜在的危险。我们提出了一种结构化的方法来评估冰下湖勘探中的井喷风险。该方法集成了适用于开放和封闭水文系统的通用事件树，以及结合严格概率公式的特定地点专家判断。该方法应用于一个激励的例子：埃尔斯沃思冰下湖。通过正式程序得出的判断由5位拥有88年综合经验的专家提供，汇总后得出井喷风险的中位数为2186 / 1，下四分位数为3433 / 1，上四分位数为1341 / 1。这种方法可以应用于任何冰下湖泊，只要对其水文环境有一点了解，就可以通过得出的判断来捕捉不确定性。此外，事件树分析为井喷缓解策略提供信息，以降低伤害或死亡风险。
Abstract As Antarctic subglacial lake research progresses to in situ exploration an important topic is the lake's probable gas concentration. Depending on hydrological setting, subglacial lakes may contain large amounts of dissolved gas or gas trapped within clathrates. Consequently, access can be potentially dangerous due to the risk of blowout where depressurization could lead to high-speed ejection of water and gas from a borehole. We present a structured approach to assess the blowout risk in subglacial lake exploration. The approach integrates a generic event tree, applicable to open and closed hydrological systems, with site-specific expert judgment incorporating rigorous probabilistic formulations. The methodology is applied to a motivating example: Ellsworth Subglacial Lake. Judgments elicited through a formal process were provided by five experts with 88 years combined experience that, after aggregation, gave a median risk of blowout of 1 in 2186 with a lower quartile of 1 in 3433 and an upper quartile of 1 in 1341. This approach can be applied to any subglacial lake given a modicum of knowledge on its hydrological setting, as uncertainty can be captured through the elicited judgments. Additionally, the event tree analysis informs blowout mitigation strategies to reduce risk of injury or death.
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影响因子：
5.3
作者：
I. Filina;D. Blankenship;M. Thoma;V. Lukin;V. N. Masolov;Mrinal K. Sen
通讯作者：
I. Filina;D. Blankenship;M. Thoma;V. Lukin;V. N. Masolov;Mrinal K. Sen
影响因子：
25.2
作者：
M. Siegert;Rachel J. Clarke;M. Mowlem;N. Ross;Christopher S. Hill;A. Tait;D. Hodgson;J. Parnell;M. Tranter;D. Pearce;M. J. Bentley;C. Cockell;M. Tsaloglou;Andrew M. Smith;J. Woodward;M. Brito;E. Waugh
通讯作者：
M. Siegert;Rachel J. Clarke;M. Mowlem;N. Ross;Christopher S. Hill;A. Tait;D. Hodgson;J. Parnell;M. Tranter;D. Pearce;M. J. Bentley;C. Cockell;M. Tsaloglou;Andrew M. Smith;J. Woodward;M. Brito;E. Waugh
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
J. Woodward;A. Smith;N. Ross;M. Thoma;H. Corr;E. King;Matt A. King;K. Grosfeld;M. Tranter;M. Siegert
通讯作者：
J. Woodward;A. Smith;N. Ross;M. Thoma;H. Corr;E. King;Matt A. King;K. Grosfeld;M. Tranter;M. Siegert
可靠性案例说明第 6 号：Ellsworth 探测器的风险评估：开发、设计和部署
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Brito MP
通讯作者：
Brito MP