Projecting the Urology Workforce Over the Next 20 Years
Projecting the Urology Workforce Over the Next 20 Years
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DOI：
10.1016/j.urology.2016.07.028
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发表时间：
2016-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Pruthi, Raj S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McKibben, Maxim J.;Kirby, E. Will;Pruthi, Raj S.
目的预测未来20年泌尿科医师和泌尿科高级护理人员（ACP；执业护士、医师助理）的规模和构成。方法根据美国泌尿外科委员会认证数据和2014年美国泌尿外科协会（AUA）人口普查估计当前泌尿科医生的劳动力。根据美国泌尿外科委员会和AUA住院医师匹配数据估计入职劳动力。ACP的劳动力估计来自2012年美国医师协会医师调查。全职当量（FTE）的计算基于2014年泌尿外科劳动力调查。劳动力预测是使用具有多个可选预测情景的存量和流动人口模型创建的。结果：总体（泌尿科医生+ ACP）劳动力fte预计将略有增长，从2015年的14,792人增加到2035年的15,160人。泌尿科全职医生的数量可能会大幅下降，从2015年的11221人下降到2035年的8859人。acp将显著增加，从2015年的8710人增加到2035年的15369人。到2035年，女性泌尿科医生将从目前的7.0%增加到18.6%。对备选方案进行了评估，预计2035年的总贸易量在14,066至17,675之间。到2035年，劳动力短缺的预测范围在12%到46%之间。结论随着未来几十年泌尿科医生的减少，泌尿科医生和acp可能无法满足未来的需求。这一预测强调了需要在该领域的领导层之间进行讨论和规划，以找到解决即将到来的劳动力短缺的创造性解决方案。(C) 2016 Elsevier Inc.
OBJECTIVE To forecast the size and composition of the urologist and urology advanced care provider (ACP; nurse practitioner, physicians' assistant) workforce over the next 20 years.METHODS Current urologist workforce was estimated from the American Board of Urology certification data and the 2014 American Urological Association (AUA) Census. Incoming workforce was estimated from the American Board of Urology and AUA residency match data. Estimates of the ACP workforce were extracted from the 2012 AUA Physician Survey. Full-time equivalent (FTE) calculations were based on a 2014 urology workforce survey. Workforce projections were created using a stock and flow population model with multiple alternative forecast scenarios.RESULTS Slight growth in overall (urologist + ACP) workforce FTEs is expected, from 14,792 in 2015 to 15,160 in 2035. A significant decline in urologist FTEs is likely, from 11,221 in 2015 to 8859 in 2035. ACPs should increase markedly, from 8,710 in 2015 to 15,369 in 2035. Female urologists should increase by 2035, from the current 7.0% to 18.6% of urologist workforce. Alternate scenarios were evaluated, with forecasted FTEs in 2035 ranging from 14,066 to 17,675. In 2035, workforce shortage predictions range from 12% to 46%.CONCLUSION With a decrease in urologists over the coming decades, urologists and ACPs may not meet future demand. This forecast highlights the need for discussion and planning among leadership in the field to find creative solutions for this impending workforce shortage.(C) 2016 Elsevier Inc.