EXERCISES IN CONJECTURAL EQUILIBRIA
EXERCISES IN CONJECTURAL EQUILIBRIA
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猜想均衡练习
DOI：
10.1007/978-1-349-03917-3_4
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发表时间：
1977
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Hahn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Hahn
在本文中，人们考虑了一种个人可以以“虚假”价格进行交易的经济体。当他们这样做时，他们会遇到数量限制，正如阿罗所指出的那样，这反过来会阻止他们成为完美的竞争对手。特别是，他们必须提出关于价格变化影响其数量限制的可能性的假设。这种假设称为猜想。在猜想下实现期望交易并且没有价格变化是有利的一组价格和数量信号是猜想均衡。即使经济具有瓦尔拉斯均衡，它们也可以具有推测的均衡。自然地，人们想要一种猜想形成的理论。下面主要通过例子表明，寻找理性猜想均衡（在下文中定义）是没有成果的。有人得出的结论是，人们最多只能希望特工推测出马歇尔时间表。
In this paper one considers an economy in which individuals can transact at “false” prices. When they do they encounter quantity constraints, this in turn, as Arrow has noted, stops them acting as perfect competitors. In particular they must form an hypothesis concerning a possibility of affecting their quantity constraints by a change of price. This hypothesis is called a conjecture. A set of prices and quantity signals at which desired trades are achieved and no prices change is advantageous under the conjecture is a conjectural equilibrium. Economies can have conjectural equilibria even when they have a Walrasian one. Naturally one wants a theory of conjecture formation. In what follows it is shown, mainly by examples, that it is not fruitful to look for rational conjectural equilibria (defined in the sequel). One concludes that at best one could hope that agents conjecture Marshallian schedules.