Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.
Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2016.0144
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发表时间：
2017-06-19
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Thomas CD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Palmer G;Platts PJ;Brereton T;Chapman JW;Dytham C;Fox R;Pearce-Higgins JW;Roy DB;Hill JK;Thomas CD
极端气候事件可能是生物多样性变化的主要驱动因素，但目前尚不清楚极端生物变化是否是（一）个体性的（物种或群体特异性的），（二）通常与异常气候事件有关，和/或（三）长期人口趋势的重要决定因素。自1968年以来，在英格兰使用人口时间序列238广泛的物种（207鳞翅目和31种鸟类），我们发现，人口的“崩溃”（离群值在物种的年到年的人口变化）比人口“爆炸”的频率高46%。(i)每年，至少有三个物种经历了种群规模的极端变化，在44年中的41年中，一些物种经历了种群崩溃，而另一些物种同时经历了种群爆炸。这表明，即使在相同的广泛的分类群体，物种表现出个人主义的动态，最有可能是由他们的反应，与气候变化相关的不同的短期事件。(ii)在44年中，有6年的物种数量出现了显著的极端变化（鳞翅目5年，鸟类1年）。这些“共识年”与气候极端年相关联，与极端人口反应和气候变异性之间的联系一致，尽管并非所有气候极端年都会产生过多的极端人口反应。(iii)极端的人口变化和长期的人口趋势之间的联系是不存在的鳞翅目和温和（但显着）的鸟类。我们的结论是，极端的生物反应是个人主义的，在这个意义上说，大多数物种的极端人口变化发生在不同的年份，广泛分布的物种的长期趋势还没有，到目前为止，这些极端的变化占主导地位。这篇文章是“极端气候事件的行为，生态和进化反应”主题问题的一部分。
Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population ‘crashes’ (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population ‘explosions’. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These ‘consensus years’ were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’.