Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict
Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict
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DOI：
10.1002/2013ef000205
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Robock, Alan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mills, Michael J.;Toon, Owen B.;Robock, Alan
我们提出了第一个研究的全球影响的区域核战争与地球系统模型，包括大气化学，海洋动力学，海冰和陆地组件的相互作用。印度和巴基斯坦之间的一场有限的区域核战争，其中每一方引爆50枚15千吨武器，可以产生大约5 Tg的黑碳（BC）。这将自我上升到平流层，在那里它将在全球范围内传播，造成表面温度突然下降，平流层剧烈升温。使用社区地球系统模型与全大气社区气候模型，我们计算出平流层BC的e-折叠时间为8.7年，而以前的研究为4-6.5年。我们的计算表明，在人口稠密地区，全球臭氧损失20%-50%，这是人类历史上前所未有的水平，将伴随着过去1000年来最冷的平均表面温度。我们计算夏季增强紫外线指数的30%-80%的中纬度地区，这表明广泛的损害人类健康，农业，陆地和水生生态系统。消灭霜冻将使生长季节每年减少10-40天，持续5年。由于海洋中的热惯性和对流效应以及海冰的扩大，地表温度将降低25年以上。冷却和增强的紫外线将给全球粮食供应带来巨大压力，并可能引发全球核饥荒。了解100枚小型核武器的影响应该会推动消除当今存在的17，000多枚核武器。
We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.