The co-production of sustainable future scenarios
The co-production of sustainable future scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103744
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
Grimm, Nancy B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iwaniec, David M.;Cook, Elizabeth M.;Grimm, Nancy B.
情景是一种工具，可以用来建立对未来合理、连贯的愿景，并培养预见性知识。我们介绍了可持续未来情景(SFS)框架，并通过亚利桑那州中部-凤凰城长期生态研究(CAP LTER)城市站点演示了其应用。可持续发展战略方针强调共同制定积极和长期的替代未来愿景。通过实践者和学术利益相关者的合作，本研究整合了参与式情景开发、建模和定性情景评估。SFS参与进程创造了空间，以质疑在面对未来挑战时通常被认为是可能、可取或不可避免的限制。对未来情景的比较分析表明，区域和微尺度的温度、水利用、土地利用变化以及共同制定的复原力和可持续性指数之间存在权衡。SFS在共同产生积极的未来愿景时纳入了不同的观点，从而扩大了传统的未来预测。迭代、互动的过程还创造了机会，通过为长期可持续发展规划建立基于系统的前瞻性决策和研究能力，为科学和政策架起桥梁。
Scenarios are a tool to develop plausible, coherent visions about the future and to foster anticipatory knowledge. We present the Sustainable Future Scenarios (SFS) framework and demonstrate its application through the Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-term Ecological Research (CAP LTER) urban site. The SFS approach emphasizes the co-development of positive and long-term alternative future visions. Through a collaboration of practitioner and academic stakeholders, this research integrates participatory scenario development, modeling, and qualitative scenario assessments. The SFS engagement process creates space to question the limits of what is normally considered possible, desirable, or inevitable in the face of future challenges. Comparative analyses among the future scenarios demonstrate trade-offs among regional and microscale temperature, water use, land-use change, and co-developed resilience and sustainability indices. SFS incorporate diverse perspectives in co-producing positive future visions, thereby expanding traditional future projections. The iterative, interactive process also creates opportunities to bridge science and policy by building anticipatory and systems-based decision-making and research capacity for long-term sustainability planning.