Quantifying the Traffic Impacts of the COVID-19 Shutdown
Quantifying the Traffic Impacts of the COVID-19 Shutdown
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DOI：
10.1061/jtepbs.0000527
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发表时间：
2021-05-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Stern, Raphael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Zixuan;Stern, Raphael
新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行严重扰乱了美国和世界各地的交通和旅行模式。美国旅行大幅减少的一个重要驱动因素是州、县和市各级宣布不同程度的减少。然而，目前尚不清楚这些订单中的任何一项订单对减少旅行的贡献有多大。本文着眼于从明尼阿波利斯，圣保罗，明尼苏达州，地区的连续计数数据，以量化的交通量减少方面的中断，以及异常的交通模式中断。一个近50%的总交通量减少，并确定区域趋势减少和逐步恢复正常的出行模式。此外，确定了导致旅行大幅减少的关键日期，并将此破坏性事件与明尼苏达州的其他重大破坏性事件进行了比较。据发现，虽然居家令是抗击COVID-19的重要里程碑，但交通量在命令生效前已大幅减少，而交通量在命令到期前已大幅恢复。这些发现将有助于了解居家令对未来COVID-19或其他大流行病爆发的影响。(C)2021年美国土木工程师学会
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly disrupted transportation and travel patterns across the US and around the world. A significant driving factor in the significant reduction in travel in the US was the declaration of varying state-, county-, and city-level stay-at-home orders with varying degrees of reduction. However, it is still not clear how significantly any one of those orders contributed to the reduction in travel. This article looks at continuous count data from the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, area to quantify the disruption in terms of reductions in traffic volume as well as the abnormality of the disruption to travel patterns. A nearly 50% reduction in total traffic volume is found, and regional trends both in reductions and the gradual recovery toward normal travel patterns are identified. Furthermore, key dates are identified that led to significant reductions in travel, and this disruptive event is compared with other significantly disruptive events in Minnesota for context. It is found that although the stay-at-home order was a significant milestone in the fight against COVID-19, traffic volumes had already reduced significantly before the order went into effect, and traffic volumes had recovered significantly before the order expired. These findings will be helpful in understand the impact of stay-at-home orders on future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other pandemics. (C) 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.