Modeling on climate induced drought of north-western region, Bangladesh
Modeling on climate induced drought of north-western region, Bangladesh
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孟加拉国西北部地区气候引起的干旱模拟
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
M. Nazrul Islam
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Khandaker Masudur Rahaman;F. Ahmed;M. Nazrul Islam
由于条件漂移、宇宙周期以及火山活动和太阳能的变化，气候变化随着时间的推移自然发生。工业革命改变了地球气候成分的自然平衡，使大气温度高于其自然节律，最终对地理上脆弱的国家造成灾难性后果，这是包括IPCC在内的几个国际组织的既定事实。在脆弱国家中，孟加拉国正面临着气候灾害增加的趋势，沿着极端超级事件。孟加拉国西北部地区最容易遭受干旱。在过去20年（1994-2013年）中，年平均最高气温上升了0.16 °C，考虑到40年（1964-2013年）的趋势，预计本世纪末平均最低气温将上升1.3 °C。在过去的二十年里，即1994-2003年和2004-2013年，年平均降雨量分别为151.50和138.09毫米。在过去的十年里，降雨量明显减少。从1995年起，湿度水平被发现是静态的。西北地区是孟加拉国重要的农业枢纽。降雨量的减少及其季节性变化使该区域更加依赖地下水进行灌溉。空间分析和趋势分析表明，该地区地下水资源的枯竭趋势越来越明显。另一方面，除帕布纳外，各地区的地表水位均呈负偏态。最高温度的上升趋势刺激高蒸发以及跨界水运动的不确定性被认为是强烈影响地表水位的枯竭。这些情况使西北地区更容易遭受干旱。
Climate change has occurred naturally over time due to conditional drift, cosmological cycle and changes in volcanic activity and solar energy. Industrial revolutions have changed the balance of natural equilibrium of earth’s climate constituent, making atmosphere warmer than its natural rhythm eventually causing catastrophic consequences on geographically vulnerable countries, which is an established fact by several international organizations including IPCC. Among the vulnerable countries, Bangladesh is facing increasing trend of climatic hazard along with extreme super event. North-western region of Bangladesh is mostly vulnerable to drought. Within the last two decades (1994–2013), annual average maximum temperature has increased by 0.16 °C and the average minimum temperature is forecasted to be increased by 1.3 °C at the end of this century considering the four decadal (1964–2013) trend. Over the last two decades i.e. 1994–2003 and 2004–2013, the annual average rainfall has calculated 151.50 and 138.09 mm, respectively. Rainfall has decreased quite significantly in the last decade. From 1995 humidity level is found to be static in nature. North-western region is an important agricultural hub of Bangladesh. Decrease in rainfall and its seasonal variability have made the region more dependent on ground water for irrigation. Spatial and trend analysis shows groundwater depletion trend is getting steeper in this region. On the other hand, surface water level for every district, except for Pabna, shows negative skewedness. Increasing trend in maximum temperature stimulating high evaporation as well as uncertainty of trans-boundary water movement is found to be strongly influencing the depletion of surface water level. These circumstances are making North-western region more vulnerable towards drought.