Estimating monthly concentrations of ambient key air pollutants in Japan during 2010-2015 for a national-scale birth cohort
Estimating monthly concentrations of ambient key air pollutants in Japan during 2010-2015 for a national-scale birth cohort
复制标题
估算 2010 年至 2015 年日本全国范围出生队列的环境主要空气污染物月浓度
DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117483
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Yamazaki Shin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Araki Shin;Hasunuma Hideki;Yamamoto Kouhei;Shima Masayuki;Michikawa Takehiro;Nitta Hiroshi;Nakayama Shoji F.;Yamazaki Shin
暴露于环境空气污染与孕产妇和儿童健康有关。一些空气污染物在大气中表现出类似的行为，有些污染物相互作用;因此，需要对单个空气污染物进行全面评估。在本研究中，我们开发了六种空气污染物（NO，NO2，SO2，O3，PM2.5和悬浮颗粒物（SPM））的全国范围的月度模型，以获得2010年至2015年1 km × 1 km分辨率的污染物浓度的准确估计，用于日本环境与儿童研究（JECS），这是一项大规模的出生队列研究。我们在土地利用回归框架中使用随机森林结合克里金法开发了我们的模型。我们通过5重基于位置的交叉验证来评估模型性能。我们成功地预测了月NO（r2= 0.65），NO2（r2= 0.84），O3（r2= 0.86），PM2.5（r2= 0.79），和SPM（r2= 0.64）的浓度。对于SO2，由于日本的SO2浓度较低，因此无法建立令人满意的模型（r2= 0.45）。我们的模型的性能是在类似的时间和空间尺度在以前的研究报告。模型预测与JECS一起将揭示产前和婴儿暴露于环境空气污染物的关键窗口，从而有助于制定空气污染环境政策。
Exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with maternal and child health. Some air pollutants exhibit similar behavior in the atmosphere, and some interact with each other; thus, comprehensive assessments of individual air pollutants are required. In this study, we developed national-scale monthly models for six air pollutants (NO, NO2, SO2, O3, PM2.5, and suspended particulate matter (SPM)) to obtain accurate estimates of pollutant concentrations at 1 km × 1 km resolution from 2010 through 2015 for application to the Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS), which is a large-scale birth cohort study. We developed our models in the land use regression framework using random forests in conjunction with kriging. We evaluated the model performance via 5-fold location-based cross-validation. We successfully predicted monthly NO (r2= 0.65), NO2(r2= 0.84), O3(r2= 0.86), PM2.5(r2= 0.79), and SPM (r2= 0.64) concentrations. For SO2, a satisfactory model could not be developed (r2= 0.45) because of the low SO2concentrations in Japan. The performance of our models is comparable to those reported in previous studies at similar temporal and spatial scales. The model predictions in conjunction with the JECS will reveal the critical windows of prenatal and infancy exposure to ambient air pollutants, thus contributing to the development of environmental policies on air pollution.