The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK's international trade
The consequences of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement for the UK's international trade
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贸易与合作协定对英国国际贸易的影响
DOI：
10.1093/oxrep/grab052
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Fusacchia I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fusacchia I
我们分析了贸易与合作协定（TCA）可能产生的贸易影响，该协定定义了英国（UK）和欧盟（EU）之间的脱欧后贸易环境。我们采用可计算的一般均衡模型，并侧重于贸易的附加值，而不仅仅是进出口总值。我们描述了TCA，并估计其对英国-欧盟贸易成本的影响，包括商品和服务的各种非关税壁垒。我们认为，TCA将大大减少英国的贸易：出口总额增长约7%，进口总额增长约14%。（即产生的收入），纺织品和车辆，这两个与欧盟贸易广泛，受到严重影响，因为与欧盟贸易大量的服务，面临贸易壁垒大幅增加，并随着其他部门的出口下降而经历这些部门的需求下降。这种行业间的联系将英国脱欧的损失广泛地传播到整个经济中。
We analyse the likely trade effects of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which defines the post-Brexit trading environment between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). We apply a computable general equilibrium model and focus on trade in value added rather than just the gross values of exports and imports. We describe the TCA and estimate its effects on the costs of conducting UK–EU trade, including various non-tariff barriers in both goods and services. We suggest that the TCA will reduce UK trade significantly: total exports by around 7 per cent and imports by around 14 per cent. In terms of value added (i.e. incomes generated), textiles and vehicles, both of which trade extensively with the EU, suffer heavily, as do services which trade significantly with the EU, face large increases in trade barriers, and experience declining demand from other sectors as those sectors’ exports fall. Such inter-industry linkages spread the losses from Brexit widely through the economy.