Anthropogenic emission is the main contributor to the rise of atmospheric methane during 1993-2017.
Anthropogenic emission is the main contributor to the rise of atmospheric methane during 1993-2017.
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DOI：
10.1093/nsr/nwab200
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发表时间：
2022-05
影响因子：
20.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
大气甲烷（CH 4）浓度在2000年至2006年的稳定期之后，自2007年以来出现了令人困惑的恢复增长。人们提出了多种假说来解释甲烷增长的时间变化，并将大气中甲烷的上升归因于化石燃料活动、农业和自然湿地排放的增加，或大气中化学汇的减少。在这里，我们使用一个全面的集合的CH 4源估计和同位素δ 13 C-CH 4源签名数据表明，CH 4增长的恢复是最有可能由于人为排放量的增加。我们的排放情景对同位素组成的偏差最小，表明与2000-2006年相比，2007-2017年期间农业，垃圾填埋场和废物部门占重新增长的53 ± 13%;工业化石燃料来源解释了额外的34 ± 24%，湿地源的贡献最小，为13 ± 9%，认为湿地源排放的大量增加导致大气δ 13 C-CH 4值与目前基于过程的湿地CH 4模型不一致。这一发现表明，需要增加湿地测量，以更好地了解湿地在大气甲烷和气候反馈上升的当代和未来的作用。我们的研究结果强调了人类活动在推动大气CH 4浓度增长方面的主导作用。自然还是人类？限制大气中甲烷持续上升的原因是农业和化石燃料。
Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have shown a puzzling resumption in growth since 2007 following a period of stabilization from 2000 to 2006. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the temporal variations in CH4 growth, and attribute the rise of atmospheric CH4 either to increases in emissions from fossil fuel activities, agriculture and natural wetlands, or to a decrease in the atmospheric chemical sink. Here, we use a comprehensive ensemble of CH4 source estimates and isotopic δ13C-CH4 source signature data to show that the resumption of CH4 growth is most likely due to increased anthropogenic emissions. Our emission scenarios that have the fewest biases with respect to isotopic composition suggest that the agriculture, landfill and waste sectors were responsible for 53 ± 13% of the renewed growth over the period 2007–2017 compared to 2000–2006; industrial fossil fuel sources explained an additional 34 ± 24%, and wetland sources contributed the least at 13 ± 9%. The hypothesis that a large increase in emissions from natural wetlands drove the decrease in atmospheric δ13C-CH4 values cannot be reconciled with current process-based wetland CH4 models. This finding suggests the need for increased wetland measurements to better understand the contemporary and future role of wetlands in the rise of atmospheric methane and climate feedback. Our findings highlight the predominant role of anthropogenic activities in driving the growth of atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Nature or humans? Scenarios for constraining why atmospheric methane continues to rise point to agriculture and fossil fuels.
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通讯作者：
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