Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility
Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.239901
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发表时间：
2000-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Loewenstein;Ted O’Donoghue;M. Rabin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Loewenstein;Ted O’Donoghue;M. Rabin
人们低估了自己的行为和外生因素对未来效用的影响，从而夸大了未来偏好与当前偏好的相似程度。我们提出的证据表明，这种预测偏差的患病率，并制定了一个正式的模型，得出了描述性和福利影响的偏见。该模型有助于解释既定的行为异常，如禀赋效应，并有助于解释常见的次优行为模式，如成瘾和过度追求高物质生活水平。该模型还提出了潜在的福利改善政策，例如对某些类型的消费者决策强制性冷却期。
People underappreciate how their own behavior and exogenous factors affect their future utility, and thus exaggerate the degree to which their future preferences resemble their current preferences. We present evidence which demonstrates the prevalence of such projection bias, and develop a formal model that draws out both descriptive and welfare implications of the bias. The model helps interpret established behavioral anomalies such as the endowment effect, and helps to explain commonly observed suboptimal patterns of behavior such as addiction and excessive pursuit of a high material standard of living. The model also suggests potentially welfare-improving policies, such as mandatory cooling-off periods for certain types of consumer decisions.