Why Wages Do Not Increase Despite the Labor Shortage
Why Wages Do Not Increase Despite the Labor Shortage
复制标题
劳动力短缺为何工资不涨
DOI：
10.1093/ssjj/jyy005
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Usui Emiko
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
増田聡;稲葉雅子;Usui Emiko
在竞争激烈的劳动力市场上，均衡是供求相等的点。图1展示了竞争市场上的劳动力供求曲线，表明在均衡状态下，E*工人有工作，工资为W*。然而，在这个市场上，当工人获得低于均衡工资W*的工资WL时，需求曲线表明企业对ED工人的需求，而供给曲线表明只有ES工人愿意以这个工资提供他们的劳动力。也就是说，劳动力的需求量超过了供应量。因此，工资低于均衡水平意味着劳动力短缺。因此，公司之间争夺少数可用工人的竞争将对工资构成上行压力，并将工资推升至其平衡值w*。日本著名劳动经济学家玄田裕二教授的贡献首先提出了一个令人费解的现象，即自2010年以来，日本同时出现了劳动力短缺和工资停滞的现象。为什么在劳动力短缺的情况下，我们没有观察到工资上涨的压力，这个问题在日本被认为是一个重要的话题，尽管到目前为止，研究人员还没有对这个问题进行深入分析。根达教授的目标是通过邀请包括官僚在内的21位著名研究人员相互分享他们的观点，找出对这一现象的最佳解释。同意参与的研究人员是该领域的专家，其中许多人在顶级学术期刊上发表了论文。值得注意的是，根达教授设法将这些杰出的经济学家召集到一个圆桌会议上，讨论他们的观点。在这个过程中，找出了对这一主题的普遍和普遍的解释，但也表达了广泛和不同的观点。川口大治教授和原广美教授将重点放在了非正规就业的增加上。具体地说，在日本，兼职人员的比例从2001年的27.7%上升到2015年的37.5%。此外，他们认为，非正式员工的劳动力供应--主要是已婚妇女和老年人--是完全有弹性的(即，图1中的劳动力供应曲线是平的)。因此，尽管劳动力需求出现了转变，但这一群体的工资涨幅有限。他们还提到，日本非正式员工的劳动力市场可能会出现刘易斯式的转折点，非正式员工的劳动力供应曲线最终将变得缺乏弹性(即图1中的劳动力供应曲线变得更加陡峭)，因此，非正式员工的劳动力市场将从劳动力过剩转向短缺。因此，工资最终会增加。沿着这一思路，施治哲郎教授展示了制造业工人涌入医疗保健服务行业的证据，但工资没有显著下降。这意味着
On a competitive labor market, equilibrium is the point at which supply equals demand. Figure 1 illustrates the labor supply and demand curves on a competitive market, showing that, at equilibrium E* workers are employed and paid wage w*. However, on this market, when workers are paid wage wL, which is below the equilibrium wage of w*, the demand curve indicates firms demand ED workers, while the supply curve indicates that only ES workers are willing to supply their labor at this wage. That is, the quantity of labor demanded exceeds the quantity supplied. Therefore, a wage below equilibrium indicates a labor shortage. The competition among firms for the few available workers will thus put upward pressure on wages and move the wage up towards its equilibrium value, w*. The contribution of Professor Yuji Genda—a prominent labor economist in Japan—starts by presenting the puzzling phenomenon where labor shortage and stagnating wages have been occurring simultaneously in Japan since 2010. The question of why we do not observe an upward pressure on wages when there is a labor shortage is considered an important topic in Japan, although it has not been hitherto analyzed in-depth by researchers. Professor Genda’s goal is to identify the best explanation for this phenomenon by asking 21 notable researchers, including bureaucrats, to share their views with each other. The researchers who have agreed to participate are experts in the field and many of them have published in top academic journals. It is remarkable that Professor Genda managed to convene these outstanding economists to a round table to discuss their opinions. In this process, common, prevailing explanations on the subject matter are identified, but there were also wide-ranging and various views expressed.Let me summarize the common explanations. Professors Daiji Kawaguchi and Hiromi Hara focus on the increases in non-regular employment. Specifically, the share of part-time workers has increased from 27.7% in 2001 to 37.5% in 2015 in Japan. Furthermore, they argue that the labor supply of non-regular employees—mostly married women and the elderly—is perfectly elastic (ie, the labor supply curve in Figure 1 is flat). Therefore, although there is a shift in labor demand, the wage increase for this group of workers is limited. They also mention the possibility of a ‘Lewisian turning point’on the labor market for non-regular employees in Japan, where the labor supply curve of nonregular employees will eventually become inelastic (ie, the labor supply curve in Figure 1 becomes steeper) and, therefore, the labor market for non-regular employees will move from labor surplus to shortage. As a result, wages will eventually increase. Along this line, Professor Etsuro Shioji shows evidence of an influx of workers from the manufacturing sector into the healthcare service sector with no significant wage decrease. This means the