Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease
Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwi230
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发表时间：
2005-09-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Leung, GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ghani, AC;Donnelly, CA;Leung, GM
在一种可能致命的疾病流行期间，重要的是要很好地估计病死率。作者提出了一种基于Kaplan-Meier生存程序的新方法，综合考虑了死亡和康复两种结果，并利用2003年中国在香港爆发的严重急性呼吸综合征疫情的数据对其进行了评估。他们将在疫情不同时间点获得的这一估计与最终观察到的病死率进行比较，与根据单个时间点的累积发病率和死亡率统计得出的两个经常引用的天真估计进行比较，并与使用参数混合模型的估计进行比较。他们通过分析入院时年龄定义的亚组，证明了患者特征对预后的重要性。
During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naive estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital.