The impact of temperature and precipitation on all-infectious-, bacterial-, and viral-diarrheal disease in Taiwan
The impact of temperature and precipitation on all-infectious-, bacterial-, and viral-diarrheal disease in Taiwan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160850
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发表时间：
2022-12-19
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Wang，Yu-Chun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andhikaputra，Gerry;Sapkota，Amir;Wang，Yu-Chun
背景持续的气候变化将在2030-2050年期间增加包括台湾在内的亚洲地区腹泻的发病率。本研究利用台湾六个地区13年(2004-2016)人口资料，探讨气象因素(气温、降水量)与年龄原因致泻性疾病负担之关系。我们使用分布式LAG非线性模型来评估年龄(五岁以下，所有年龄)和特定病因(病毒、细菌)的腹泻疾病负担与气候变量的极高(99%)和低(5%)相关，在台湾六个地区最长滞后8周。结果极端低温(15.30℃)与全感染性腹泻和病毒性腹泻的风险相关，在所有年龄中，滞后8周的全感染性腹泻的风险最高[相对风险(RR)：1.44；95%可信区间(95%CI)：1.24-1.67]。无论年龄如何，病毒性腹泻感染的风险都是在滞后2周时观察到的。极高气温(30.18°C)与所有年龄组(RR：1.07；95%CI：1.02-1.13)在滞后8周时发生细菌性腹泻的风险相关。同样，极高的降雨量(290毫米)与所有感染性腹泻有关，在滞后8周时，在五岁以下人群中观察到的细菌性腹泻风险最高(RR：2.77；95%CI：1.60-4.79)。极低降雨量(0 Mm)与病原性腹泻相关(RR：1.08；95%CI：1.01~1.15)。结论在台湾，极端低温与病毒性腹泻的负担增加有关，而极端高温和降水则增加了细菌性腹泻的负担。具体原因和特定气候危害的腹泻疾病负担的这种区别突出了在旨在提高社区对气候变化的复原力的公共卫生准备措施中纳入差异的重要性。
BackgroundThe ongoing climate change will elevate the incidence of diarrheal in 2030–2050 in Asia, including Taiwan. This study investigated associations between meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation) and burden of age-cause-specific diarrheal diseases in six regions of Taiwan using 13 years of (2004–2016) population-based data.MethodsWeekly cause-specific diarrheal and meteorological data were obtained from 2004 to 2016. We used distributed lag non-linear model to assess age (under five, all age) and cause-specific (viral, bacterial) diarrheal disease burden associated with extreme high (99th percentile) and low (5th percentile) of climate variables up to lag 8 weeks in six regions of Taiwan. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool these region-specific estimates.ResultsExtreme low temperature (15.30 °C) was associated with risks of all-infectious and viral diarrhea, with the highest risk for all-infectious diarrheal found at lag 8 weeks among all age [Relative Risk (RR): 1.44; 95 % Confidence Interval (95 % CI): 1.24–1.67]. The highest risk of viral diarrheal infection was observed at lag 2 weeks regardless the age. Extreme high temperature (30.18 °C) was associated with risk of bacterial diarrheal among all age (RR: 1.07; 95 % CI: 1.02–1.13) at lag 8 weeks. Likewise, extreme high precipitation (290 mm) was associated with all infectious diarrheal, with the highest risk observed for bacterial diarrheal among population under five years (RR: 2.77; 95 % CI: 1.60–4.79) at lag 8 weeks. Extreme low precipitation (0 mm) was associated with viral diarrheal in all age at lag 1 week (RR: 1.08; 95 % CI: 1.01–1.15)].ConclusionIn Taiwan, extreme low temperature is associated with an increased burden of viral diarrheal, while extreme high temperature and precipitation elevated burden of bacterial diarrheal. This distinction in cause-specific and climate-hazard specific diarrheal disease burden underscore the importance of incorporating differences in public health preparedness measures designed to enhance community resilience against climate change.