Projections of global mercury emissions in 2050.
Projections of global mercury emissions in 2050.
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DOI：
10.1021/es802474j
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发表时间：
2009-04
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
D. Streets;Qiang Zhang;Ye Wu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Streets;Qiang Zhang;Ye Wu
报告根据各种社会经济和技术发展假设，列出了2050年的全球汞排放量。我们发现，汞排放量在未来很可能会增加。2050年全球汞排放量预计为2，390 - 4，860毫克，而2006年为2，480毫克，变化幅度为-4%至+96%。排放量增加的主要驱动力是发展中国家，特别是亚洲燃煤发电的扩大。我们遏制汞排放增长的能力受到当前燃煤发电厂排放控制技术（烟气脱硫）的汞去除效率相对较低的限制。大规模采用先进的汞吸附剂技术，如活性炭喷射，有望将2050年的汞排放量降至1，670 - 3，480毫克，但这些技术尚未投入商业使用。到2050年，元素汞在总排放量中所占的比例将从目前的约65%下降到约50-55%，而二价汞的比例将增加。这标志着汞元素从远距离迁移到汞化合物的局部沉积的转变，尽管在最坏的情况下，这两种物质的排放量可能会增加。
Global Hg emissions are presented for the year 2050 under a variety of assumptions about socioeconomic and technology development. We find it likely that Hg emissions will increase in the future. The range of 2050 global Hg emissions is projected to be 2390-4860 Mg, compared to 2006 levels of 2480 Mg, reflecting a change of -4% to +96%. The main driving force for increased emissions is the expansion of coal-fired electricity generation in the developing world, particularly Asia. Our ability to arrest the growth in Hg emissions is limited by the relatively low Hg removal efficiency of the current generation of emission control technologies for coal-fired power plants (flue-gas desulfurization). Large-scale deployment of advanced Hg sorbent technologies, such as Activated Carbon Injection, offers the promise of lowering the 2050 emissions range to 1670-3480 Mg, but these technologies are not yet in commercial use. The share of elemental Hg in total emissions will decline from today's levels of approximately 65% to approximately 50-55% by 2050, while the share of divalent Hg will increase. This signals a shift from long-range transport of elemental Hg to local deposition of Hg compounds-though emissions of both species could increase under the worst case.