Measuring Voters' Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan's 2014 Election
Measuring Voters' Multidimensional Policy Preferences with Conjoint Analysis: Application to Japan's 2014 Election
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DOI：
10.1017/pan.2018.2
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Yamamoto, Teppei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horiuchi, Yusaku;Smith, Daniel M.;Yamamoto, Teppei
代议制民主需要将政党的多个政策问题汇总成相互竞争的政策包或宣言，然后由选民在选举中进行全面评估。这种聚合过程掩盖了选民对政党或候选人的单一选择背后的多维政策偏好。本文以2014年日本众议院选举的实际政党宣言为基础，通过联合实验来解决这一问题。通过并列设置的问题立场作为假设的宣言，并要求受访者选择一个，我们的研究确定了具体的立场对宣言的整体评估，异质性的偏好之间的子组的受访者，和宣言的受欢迎程度排名的影响。我们的分析揭示了选民的偏好与政治家和媒体对选举结果的描述之间的重要差异，这些描述为自民党提供了政策授权，强调了仅从选举结果推断民意的潜在危险。
Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by parties into competing bundles of policies, or manifestos, which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This aggregation process obscures the multidimensional policy preferences underlying a voter's single choice of party or candidate. We address this problem through a conjoint experiment based on the actual party manifestos in Japan's 2014 House of Representatives election. By juxtaposing sets of issue positions as hypothetical manifestos and asking respondents to choose one, our study identifies the effects of specific positions on the overall assessment of manifestos, heterogeneity in preferences among subgroups of respondents, and the popularity ranking of manifestos. Our analysis uncovers important discrepancies between voter preferences and the portrayal of the election results by politicians and the media as providing a policy mandate to the Liberal Democratic Party, underscoring the potential danger of inferring public opinion from election outcomes alone.