Multistage Model of Hurricane Evacuation Decision: Empirical Study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
Multistage Model of Hurricane Evacuation Decision: Empirical Study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000237
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发表时间：
2017-08-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Prater, Carla S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Shih-Kai;Lindell, Michael K.;Prater, Carla S.
这项研究扩展了以前的研究，通过测试的保护行动决策模型（PADM）在飓风卡特里娜和丽塔飓风疏散决策。这个中介模型的检查表明，一个家庭的疏散决定，预测，最直接的预期风的影响和预期的疏散障碍。反过来，预期的风力影响和预期的水文影响主要取决于预期的风暴威胁和预期的快速发生。最后，预期的风暴威胁，预期的快速发作，并预计疏散障碍是由家庭的个人特征，他们的飓风信息的接收，以及他们的社会和环境线索的观察。这些结果一般与PADM一致，并加强了飓风疏散的多阶段多方程模型测试的重要性。
This study extends previous research by testing the protective action decision model (PADM) on hurricane evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. An examination of this mediation model shows that a household's evacuation decision, as predicted, is determined most directly by expected wind impacts and expected evacuation impediments. In turn, expected wind impacts and expected hydrological impacts are primarily determined by expected storm threat and expected rapid onset. Finally, expected storm threat, expected rapid onset, and expected evacuation impediments are determined by households' personal characteristics, their reception of hurricane information, and their observations of social and environmental cues. These results are generally consistent with the PADM and reinforce the importance of testing multistage multiequation models of hurricane evacuation.