Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach
Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach
复制标题
在成本效益框架中耦合气候和经济模型：凸优化方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alain Haurie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Laurent Drouet;Neil R. Edwards;Alain Haurie
在本文中，我们提出了一种通用的方法，基于凸优化技术，有利于耦合的气候和经济模型的成本效益框架。作为该方法的演示，我们耦合一个经济增长模型à la Ramsey改编自DICE-99与一个有效的中间复杂性气候模型，C-GOLDSTEIN，它具有高度简化的物理，但完全三维海洋动力学。与DICE-99一样，我们假设经济成本与全球温度变化相关：这种变化是从气候模型中获得的，该模型由从经济增长路径计算的GHG浓度驱动。在这里，我们考虑更复杂的成本效益耦合，其中气候影响不是先验固定的。我们实现耦合模型使用基于甲骨文的优化技术。每个模型都包含在一个oracle中，该oracle提供模型输出和关于其对主程序的敏感性的信息。算法Proximal-ACCPM保证了充分的凸性假设下的过程的收敛性。我们的研究结果表明，一个一致的，成本效益，气候损害优化分析与三维气候模型的可能性。
In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.