A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector
A model of technological breakthrough in the renewable energy sector
复制标题
可再生能源领域技术突破的典范
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.08.023
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
R. Marschinski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robert C. Schmidt;R. Marschinski
在能源部门引发技术变革的模型往往预测可再生能源将逐步扩大，到我们世纪结束时，化石燃料仍将在能源组合中占有相当大的份额。然而，历史上也有新产品或新技术迅速推广并在较短时间内实现高产出的例子。本文探讨了可再生能源部门的“技术突破”的可能性，使用一个局部均衡模型的能源发电与内生R & D。我们的研究结果表明，由于规模收益的增加，可以出现多重均衡。在该模型中，两种稳定状态可以共存，一种以较低的可再生能源供应为特征，另一种以较高的可再生能源供应为特征。从低产出平衡向高产出平衡过渡的特征是可再生能源领域研发活动和产能投资的不连续增长。这种转变可以由世界能源需求的上升、化石燃料供应的下降或政策干预引发。在市场条件下，这种转变比社会最优状态下发生得晚。因此，我们确定了与路径依赖和技术锁定相关的市场失灵，这可以证明最初的强有力的政策干预是合理的。奇怪的是，意图良好的节能政策实际上可能导致排放量增加，因为它们对能源价格产生缓冲作用，减少了投资可再生能源的动力。因此，这些政策应辅之以其他手段，恢复对可再生能源投资的激励。最后，我们讨论了垄断力量对创新市场的影响。我们表明，市场力量可以缓解技术锁定的问题，但会造成一个新的市场失灵，降低静态效率。
Models with induced technological change in the energy sector often predict a gradual expansion of renewable energies, and a substantial share of fossil fuels remaining in the energy mix through the end of our century. However, there are historical examples where new products or technologies expanded rapidly and achieved a high output in a relatively short period of time. This paper explores the possibility of a ‘technological breakthrough’ in the renewable energy sector, using a partial equilibrium model of energy generation with endogenous R&D. Our results indicate, that due to increasing returns-to-scale, a multiplicity of equilibria can arise. In the model, two stable states can coexist, one characterized by a lower and one by higher supply of renewable energy. The transition from the low-output to the high-output equilibrium is characterized by a discontinuous rise in R&D activity and capacity investments in the renewable energy sector. The transition can be triggered by a rise in world energy demand, by a drop in the supply of fossil fuels, or by policy intervention. Under market conditions, the transition occurs later than in the social optimum. Hence, we identify a market failure related to path-dependence and technological lock-in, that can justify a strong policy intervention initially. Paradoxically, well-intended energy-saving policies can actually lead to higher emissions, as they reduce the incentives to invest in renewable energies by having a cushioning effect on the energy price. Hence, these policies should be supplemented by other instruments that restore the incentives to invest in renewable energies. Finally, we discuss the influence of monopoly power in the market for innovations. We show that market power can alleviate the problem of technological lock-in, but creates a new market failure that reduces static efficiency.