Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances
Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances
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DOI：
10.17863/cam.4950
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发表时间：
2014-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kai Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kai Liu
本文提出了一个新的框架来分析和估计结构性财政平衡。随机趋势被适当地纳入，DSGE模型的数值解作为卡尔曼平滑器的一部分，以提取结构性财政平衡。对于英国，一个集成的随机游走的基本随机趋势的设置最适合的日期。名义财政收入对技术冲击的响应较小。外需冲击和外货价格冲击对财政收入都有正向影响。扩张性货币政策冲击对财政收入有很大的短期正向影响，但由于英国的开放经济特征，这种影响并不持久。扩大政府支出也可以增加财政收入，但由于国内外挤出效应，效果也不持久。紧缩性的财政政策（削减政府开支或暂时增加一次性税收），而不是扩张性的，将有利于经济复苏，并改善财政状况。相对于暂时增加一次过税，削减政府开支的效果相对更好，而且可以消除两种挤出效应。
This paper proposes a new framework to analyze and estimate structural fiscal balances. Stochastic trends are properly incorporated, and the numerical solution of the DSGE model serves as part of the Kalman smoother to extract structural fiscal balances. For the UK, a setting of an integrated random walk for the underlying stochastic trends fits the date best. The response of nominal fiscal revenue to the technology shock is small. The shocks to foreign demand and to foreign goods price both have positive effects on fiscal revenue. An expansionary monetary policy shock has a great positive short-run impact on fiscal revenue, but the influence is not persistent because of the open-economy characteristic of the UK. An expansion in government spending can also increase fiscal revenue, but the effect is not persistent as well due to the domestic and external crowd-out effects. A contractionary fiscal policy (cutting government expenditure or increasing the lump-sum tax temporarily), rather than an expasionary one, will benefit economic recovery and also improve fiscal stance. Compared to a temporary increase of the lump-sum tax, cutting government spending is relatively more effective and it alleviates the two kinds of crowd-out effects.