On the success of megaprojects
On the success of megaprojects
复制标题
论大型项目的成功
DOI：
10.1108/ijmpb-06-2017-0062
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Yan Xue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Turner;Yan Xue
目的
本文的目的是开发一种大型项目成功的新模式。人们常说大型项目失败是因为它们完成较晚和/或超支。由于大型项目通常很复杂，因此输入的微小变化可能会导致输出的不成比例的变化。因此，一开始的时间和成本目标可能没有什么有效性。它们是有用的目标，而不是可以用来判断成功或失败的价值观。作者认为，如果一个大型项目在时间和成本上产生了有价值的结果，那么它就是成功的。
设计/方法论/途径
作者开发了一种大型项目成功的新模型，并根据来自知名来源的大量案例研究评估了其适用性。
研究结果
作者确定了大型项目成功的四个维度：他们在时间和成本上产生了有价值的产出；他们以使其有价值的时间和成本实现了预期的结果和收益；它们提供正的净现值；他们以使其有价值的时间和成本满足业务或公共需求。
研究局限性/影响
作者提出了一种大型项目成功的新模型，该模型摆脱了所谓的铁三角或三重约束，这些约束在复杂项目的背景下毫无意义。复杂项目的完成时间和成本无法预测。然而，目标是必需的，因为大型项目必须在使其有价值的时间和成本下产生有价值的成果。
实际意义
该论文提出了一种评估大型项目成功与否的新方法，这将导致更多的大型项目被评估为成功。它表明什么是真正重要的，即大型项目应该在使其有价值的时间和成本下产生和产生价值的结果。
社会影响
大型项目通常会给社会带来超出经济效益的好处。通常，经济效益无法与这些社会效益相匹配，这使得评估项目的价值变得困难。在其中一个案例中，经济价值被置于社会效益之上，效益与成本比从 0.85 增加到 2.5。
原创性/价值
作者提出了大型项目成功的新模式。
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop a new model for the success of megaprojects. Megaprojects are often said to fail because they finish late and/or overspent. As megaprojects are usually complex, so small changes in input can lead to disproportionate changes in output. So the time and cost targets at the start can have little validity. They are useful targets, not values which can be used to judge success or failure. The authors suggest that a megaproject is a success if it produces a worthwhile result at a time and cost that makes it valuable.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors develop a new model for the success of megaprojects, and asses its applicability against a number of case studies from well-known sources.
Findings
The authors identify four dimensions of megaproject success: they produce an output at a time and cost that makes it valuable; they achieve the desired outcome and benefit at a time and cost that makes them valuable; they deliver positive net present value; and they deliver a business or public need at a time and cost which makes it valuable.
Research limitations/implications
The authors propose a new model for megaproject success that moves away from the so-called iron triangle or triple constraint, which are meaningless in the context of complex projects. Time and cost to completion cannot be predicted on complex projects. However, targets are required because a megaproject must produce a valuable outcome at a time and cost that makes it valuable.
Practical implications
The paper produces a new way of assessing the success of megaprojects which will lead to a larger number of megaprojects being assessed to be successful. It indicates what is truly important, that the megaproject should produce and outcome of value at a time and cost that makes it valuable.
Social implications
Megaprojects often produce benefits to society over and above the financial benefits. Often an economic benefit cannot be paced on these social benefits, which makes it problematic to assess the value of the project. In one of the cases economic value was placed on the social benefits, and the benefit:cost ratio was increased from 0.85 to 2.5.
Originality/value
The authors propose a new model for the success of megaprojects.