Adequacy of the Ocean Observation System for Quantifying Regional Heat and Freshwater Storage and Change
Adequacy of the Ocean Observation System for Quantifying Regional Heat and Freshwater Storage and Change
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/fmars.2019.00416
复制
发表时间：
2019-08
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
M. Palmer;P. Durack;M. P. Chidichimo;J. Church;S. Cravatte;K. Hill;J. Johannessen;J. Karstensen;Tong Lee;D. Legler;M. Mazloff;E. Oka;S. Purkey;B. Rabe;J. Sallée;B. Sloyan;S. Speich;K. von Schuckmann;J. Willis;S. Wijffels
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Palmer;P. Durack;M. P. Chidichimo;J. Church;S. Cravatte;K. Hill;J. Johannessen;J. Karstensen;Tong Lee;D. Legler;M. Mazloff;E. Oka;S. Purkey;B. Rabe;J. Sallée;B. Sloyan;S. Speich;K. von Schuckmann;J. Willis;S. Wijffels
在过去二十年中，全球海洋观测系统取得了相当大的进展，为提供关于热量和淡水储存变化的更多量化信息提供了机会。这些储存期的变化可能是由于内部变化以及海洋对人为气候变化的反应造成的。理清这些相互竞争的影响对区域变化模式的影响并阐明它们的管理过程仍然是一项突出的科学挑战。仪器和抽样的不确定性加剧了这一挑战。综合使用海洋观测和模型模拟是评估来自噪声的强迫信号并确定变化和变化的主要驱动因素的最可行方法。此外，这种方法提供了改进从季节到十年的预测的潜力，并有可能对气候模型的未来预测开发强大的多变量约束。区域热量储存的变化对大部分海洋的海平面上升起着决定性的作用，对理解全球和区域热量收支都至关重要。区域淡水储存的变化与我们对水文循环变化的理解特别相关，可能被用来核实与当代海平面上升有关的陆地和冰冻圈系统增加的当地海洋质量。本白皮书将审查目前海洋观测系统量化区域热量和淡水储存变化的能力。我们将特别寻求回答这样一个问题：目前全球海洋不同区域的时间和空间尺度是什么？针对一些关键的科学问题，我们将讨论对测量精度、采样和覆盖范围的要求，以及通过更全面地分析综合观测系统提供的多变量阵列可以发挥的协同作用。
Considerable advances in the global ocean observing system over the last two decades offers an opportunity to provide more quantitative information on changes in heat and freshwater storage. Variations in these storage terms can arise through internal variability and also the response of the ocean to anthropogenic climate change. Disentangling these competing influences on the regional patterns of change and elucidating their governing processes remains an outstanding scientific challenge. This challenge is compounded by instrumental and sampling uncertainties. The combined use of ocean observations and model simulations is the most viable method to assess the forced signal from noise and ascertain the primary drivers of variability and change. Moreover, this approach offers the potential for improved seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the possibility to develop powerful multi-variate constraints on climate model future projections. Regional heat storage changes dominate the steric contribution to sea level rise over most of the ocean and are vital to understanding both global and regional heat budgets. Variations in regional freshwater storage are particularly relevant to our understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle and can potentially be used to verify local ocean mass addition from terrestrial and cryospheric systems associated with contemporary sea level rise. This White Paper will examine the ability of the current ocean observing system to quantify changes in regional heat and freshwater storage. In particular we will seek to answer the question: What time and space scales are currently resolved in different regions of the global oceans? In light of some of the key scientific questions, we will discuss the requirements for measurement accuracy, sampling, and coverage as well as the synergies that can be leveraged by more comprehensively analyzing the multi-variable arrays provided by the integrated observing system.