Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.
Early animal farming and zoonotic disease dynamics: modelling brucellosis transmission in Neolithic goat populations.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.160943
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发表时间：
2017-02
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Bendrey R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fournié G;Pfeiffer DU;Bendrey R
人畜共患病病原体经常被假设为随着农业的起源而出现，但这一点的证据在考古记录中难以捉摸。为了探讨动物驯化对人畜共患病动态和人类感染风险的潜在影响，我们建立了一个模型，模拟羊种布鲁氏菌在早期家养山羊种群中的传播。该模型是由描述新石器时代定居点在肥沃的新月的山羊种群的考古数据，并用于评估这些人口的潜力，以维持布鲁氏菌的流通。结果表明，即使在这些国内山羊种群内的低水平传播，病原体也可能持续存在。这是人口密集和人口特征发生重大变化的结果。选择性收获年轻的公山羊，可能是为了提高粮食生产效率，改变了这些群体的年龄和性别结构，增加了病原体在这些群体中的传播潜力。新石器时代定居点之间可能的相互作用将进一步促进病原体的维持。通过培养适合于使家养山羊成为羊种布鲁氏菌宿主的条件，农业发展的早期阶段可能会促进人类接触这种病原体。
Zoonotic pathogens are frequently hypothesized as emerging with the origins of farming, but evidence of this is elusive in the archaeological records. To explore the potential impact of animal domestication on zoonotic disease dynamics and human infection risk, we developed a model simulating the transmission of Brucella melitensis within early domestic goat populations. The model was informed by archaeological data describing goat populations in Neolithic settlements in the Fertile Crescent, and used to assess the potential of these populations to sustain the circulation of Brucella. Results show that the pathogen could have been sustained even at low levels of transmission within these domestic goat populations. This resulted from the creation of dense populations and major changes in demographic characteristics. The selective harvesting of young male goats, likely aimed at improving the efficiency of food production, modified the age and sex structure of these populations, increasing the transmission potential of the pathogen within these populations. Probable interactions between Neolithic settlements would have further promoted pathogen maintenance. By fostering conditions suitable for allowing domestic goats to become reservoirs of Brucella melitensis, the early stages of agricultural development were likely to promote the exposure of humans to this pathogen.