Geodetic Coupling Models as Constraints on Stochastic Earthquake Ruptures: An Example Application to PTHA in Cascadia
Geodetic Coupling Models as Constraints on Stochastic Earthquake Ruptures: An Example Application to PTHA in Cascadia
复制标题
大地测量耦合模型作为随机地震破裂的约束：卡斯卡迪亚 PTHA 的应用示例
DOI：
10.1029/2020jb021149
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Melgar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Small;D. Melgar
目前的随机破裂建模技术并没有考虑到地震间耦合的潜在影响，这是一个大型逆冲断层的一级性质，它可以显示出高耦合区域和大滑动区域之间的相关性，就像最近全球大型破裂中看到的那样。因此，有理由认为在破裂建模中应将其作为先验信息。在这里，我们首先提出了一种数学形式，将耦合模型作为先验信息引入随机破裂模型。然后，我们重点研究了在随机破裂模型中引入滑动亏缺信息如何影响卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（CSZ）的滑动分布。我们比较了两种末端构件耦合模型的破裂模型，一种是浅耦合，另一种是深下倾耦合。我们还讨论了与不假设耦合分布（除了滑移的下倾极限变化）的情况下创建的模型的比较。变化的发生与滑移亏缺率差异最大的区域密切相关。然后将裂缝用于区域概率海啸危害评估。总体而言，在耦合分布差异更为普遍的CSZ北部地区，产生的海啸振幅更为危险。假设较浅的下倾极限得到的模型与大地耦合模型得到的海啸振幅更相似。尽管耦合的准确性存在不确定性，但与没有使用先前耦合信息的情况相比，施加任何约束都会产生不同的危害估计。
Current stochastic rupture modeling techniques do not consider the potential influence of inter‐seismic coupling, a first‐order property of a megathrust, which can show correlation between areas of high coupling and areas of greater slip as seen in recent large ruptures globally. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that it should be considered as prior information in rupture modeling. Here, we first present a mathematical formalism to introduce coupling models as prior information into stochastic rupture modeling. We then focus on how introducing slip deficit information into the stochastic rupture models influences slip distributions for the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). We compare rupture models created with two end member models of coupling, one with a shallow coupling and another with coupling deeper downdip. We also discuss the comparison to models created without assuming knowledge of the coupling distribution except for variation in the downdip limit of slip. Variations occur and correlate well with areas with the largest differences in slip deficit rates. The ruptures are then used for regional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. Overall, the tsunami amplitudes generated are much more hazardous in the northern extent of the CSZ where differences in coupling distribution are more prevalent. Models obtained from assuming a shallower downdip limit have tsunami amplitudes more similar to those from the geodetic coupling models. Although uncertainties are present in the accuracy of coupling, imposing either constraint created different hazard estimations when compared to those where no prior coupling information was used.
影响因子：
2
作者：
De Risi, Raffaele;Goda, Katsuichiro
通讯作者：
Goda, Katsuichiro
卡斯卡迪亚逆冲断层沿线的过渡区域如何影响同震行为：二维动态破裂模拟的见解
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Ramos, Marlon D.;Huang, Yihe
通讯作者：
Huang, Yihe