Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China
Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China
复制标题
气候变化对中国区域水稻生产的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-018-2151-0
复制
发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Li, Feifei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lv, Zunfu;Zhu, Yan;Li, Feifei
水稻（Oryza sativa L.）生产是中国粮食安全的重要贡献者。气候变化及其对水稻生产的影响对满足中国未来水稻生产需求提出了挑战。在这项研究中，我们进行了一个全面的分析，如何水稻产量对气候变化的不同情景下，并评估了相关的模拟不确定性的各种区域尺度的气候模式。模拟进行了区域校准的作物模型（CERES水稻）和空间匹配的气候（从17个全球气候模型），土壤，管理和品种参数的基础上。在20 30、20 50和20 70 s 3个时间段内，早稻灌浆期缩短2-7 d，晚稻灌浆期缩短10-19 d。据预测，气候变化的大部分负面影响将影响中国中部的单季稻。如果种植日期保持不变，预计在21世纪30年代、50年代和70年代，中国中部地区施用CO2肥料的单季水稻平均产量将分别比21世纪初减少10%、11%和11%。如果种植日期得到优化，单季水稻产量预计将在21世纪30年代，21世纪50年代和21世纪70年代分别增加3%，7%和11%。为应对气候变化，早稻和单季稻应早种，晚稻应推迟种植。预测的净效应将是延长灌浆期和优化水稻产量。
Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China's food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China's future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2-7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10-19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.